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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus
Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Audience Outcome Forecasting techniques 1 Present changes in the QPM and other forecasting tools (technical meeting). FT Approval of changes and amendments of the QPM and other forecasting tools. Issue meeting 1 Discuss issues which might be important for the Board in the forecast round. FT management A list of issues to be analyzed in the forecast round. Near-term forecast (NTF) 2 Discuss nowcast, NTF and views of sectoral experts. FT management Consensual views on current macroeconomic developments. Initial

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; Near-term forecast; FPAS; TA mission; QPM team; monetary policy meeting; forecast scenario; NBRB flagship publication; NTF expert; Inflation targeting; NTF technique; monetary policy forecasting; FT management; policy analysis model
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; Near-term forecast; FPAS; TA mission; QPM team; monetary policy meeting; forecast scenario; NBRB flagship publication; NTF expert; Inflation targeting
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; team; FPAS; QPM team; TA mission; forecast scenario; monetary policy transmission channels; monetary policy meeting; Communications in revenue administration; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus
Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

, there are meetings of the FT organized at discretion, following needs and work flows during forecasting rounds. 5 Table 2. Structure of Recommended Meetings during a Forecast Round Meeting Week Purpose Audience Outcome Forecasting techniques 1 Present changes in the QPM and other forecasting tools (technical meeting). FT management Approval of changes and amendments of the QPM and other forecasting tools. Issue meeting 1 Discuss issues which might be important for the Board in the forecast round. FT management A

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; team; FPAS; QPM team; TA mission; forecast scenario; monetary policy transmission channels; monetary policy meeting; Communications in revenue administration; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks; monetary policy forecasting; policy decision making; monetary policy guideline; policy transmission; policy formulation