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Giang Ho and Ms. Kazuko Shirono

. Characteristics of Immigration to the Nordics 3. Patterns of Bilateral Intra-Nordic Migration 4. Intra-Nordic Net Migration—Actual and Predicted 5. EU Migration—Actual and Predicted 6. The Demographic Benefits of Migration 7. Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants 8. Wage Structure in the Nordic Countries TABLES 1. Summary Statistics—Intra-Nordic Migration 2. Drivers of Intra-Nordic Migration 3. Summary Statistics—Non-Nordic EU Migration 4. Drivers of Non-Nordic EU Migration 5. Impact of Migration on Unemployment—OLS Static Results 6. Impact of Migration

Giang Ho and Ms. Kazuko Shirono

organized as follows. The next section outlines the stylized facts about migration to Nordic countries and empirically examines the drivers of bilateral migration flows for both intra-Nordic and non-Nordic EU migration. Section III investigates the short- and long-term impact of migration on the host country labor market and studies the role of policy and institutions such as the wage structure and ALMP in shaping the unemployment outcomes of immigrants. Section IV concludes by discussing the implications for Nordic labor market policies and institutions. II

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Brexit: Sectoral Impact and Policies 1 This paper estimates the long-run economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom under two distinct assumptions for the post-Brexit relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. These illustrative scenarios entail different degrees of higher trade costs, a more restricted EU migration regime, and reduced foreign inward investment. A standard multi-country and multi-sector computable general equilibrium model is used to quantify the impact of higher trade barriers. The impact from reduced EU migration

Giang Ho and Ms. Kazuko Shirono
The large influx of migrants to Nordic countries in recent years is challenging the adoptability of Nordic labor market institutions while also adding to potential growth. This paper examines the trends, economic drivers, and labor market implications of migration to Nordic countries with a particular focus on economic migration as distinct from the recent large flows of asylum seekers. Our analysis finds that migration inflows to the Nordics are influenced by both cyclical and structural factors. Although migration helpfully dampens overheating pressures during periods of strong demand, and over the longer term will cushion the decline in labor supply from population aging, in the near-term unemployment can rise, especially among the young and lower-skilled. The analysis highlights the need to adapt Nordic labor market institutions in a manner that better facilitates the integration of migrants into employment. In particular, greater wage flexibility at the firm level and continued strong active labor market measures will help improve labor market outcomes among immigrants.
International Monetary Fund

, 2005 , “EU Migrations Causing Labor Crunch,” Contra Costa Times , December 4 . Available via the Internet: www.global.factiva.com . Kielyte , Julda , 2002 , “Migration Movement in the Baltic States: Determinants and Consequences,” paper presented at the WIDER Conference on Poverty, International Migration and Asylum, Helsinki, September 27-28, 2002. Available via the Internet: http://www.wider.unu.edu/conference/conference-2002-3/conference%20papers/kielyte.pdf . Lundborg , Per , 1998 , “The Free Movement of Labor between Sweden and

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

of intention to work in Switzerland is required in order to allow the Swiss authorities sufficient time to verify that domestic wage protections are being observed. Compliance also relies on on-site inspections and sanctions. In addition, implementing the 2014 referendum that aims to slow EU migration requires employers to publish vacancies for five working days exclusively for job seekers in Switzerland in occupations with above-average unemployment rates. 11 Quotas on permanent residency applications from nationals from Bulgaria and Romania are also applied

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the long-run economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom under two distinct assumptions for the post-Brexit relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. These illustrative scenarios entail different degrees of higher trade costs, a more restricted European Union migration regime and reduced foreign inward investment. A standard multicountry and multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to quantify the impact of higher trade barriers. There is substantial sectoral heterogeneity in the impact, and regions with higher concentrations of the more affected sectors are likely to confront greater losses. The empirical analysis suggests the speed of sectoral labor relocation across sectors has been relatively low in the UK. Irrespective of these empirical estimates, policies, such as retraining, would be critical to facilitate faster adjustment of the economy to the post-Brexit equilibrium thereby helping to minimize the associated costs to individuals and in aggregate.
Mr. Dmitry Gershenson, Mr. Albert Jaeger, and Mr. Subir Lall

labor slack. Two recent studies suggest that intra-EU migration in response to different degrees of labor market slack across member countries has increased ( Goodhart and Lee 2013 ; Beyer and Smets 2014 ). With vastly improved communication and transport technologies, migrant workers are likely to maintain more attachment to the labor market of the country they originate from than earlier generations of migrants did. This suggests that labor slack measures that are based only on the resident population are too narrow. Severe data constraints allow, however, only

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

.4 16.2 22.7 2014 5,225.6 726.0 245.2 273.3 13.9 20.4 8. During and after a crisis, outward migration of workers can provide a potent adjustment channel, further masking actual labor slack . Two recent studies suggest that intra-EU migration in response to different degrees of labor market slack across member countries has increased ( Goodhart and Lee (2013) , and Beyer and Smets (2014) ). With vastly improved communication and transport technologies, migrant workers are likely to maintain more attachment to the labor market of the

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

, it may however have a positive indirect impact on the economy. About 5,600 foreigners had benefited from this tax regime at end-2014. 18. First and foremost, increasing potential growth and employment prospects would help reversing migration outflows . Two recent studies suggest that intra-EU migration in response to different degrees of labor market slack across member countries has increased ( Goodhart and Lee (2013) , and Beyer and Smets (2014) ). Portugal still suffers from significant labor slack, with a sharp increase in the share of workers that are