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Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz and Mr. Uffe Mikkelsen
This paper investigates the asymmetries in trade spillovers from sector-specific technology shocks in China to selected euro area countries. We use a Ricardian-gravity trade model to estimate sectoral competitiveness in individual euro area countries. Simulations on the impact of productivity shocks in Chinese textiles and machinery suggest that the required adjustment in wages, prices, and factor re-allocation is widely heterogenous across euro area countries on accounts of their different specialization patterns. This raises the question of the distribution of gains and losses from external trade shocks.
Mr. Hamid Faruqee
This paper examines the impact of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on trade within the euro area. Using panel data for 22 industrial countries, the analysis estimates the effect of the euro's arrival on area-wide trade compared to bilateral trade flows between other industrial countries. Controlling for other influences according to the "gravity" model of trade, the panel analysis employs cointegration techniques to obtain reliable point estimates of EMU trade effects. Cross-country differences with respect to EMU trade gains and underlying factors accounting for these differences are also further explored.
Mr. Hamid Faruqee

the literature on currency unions and trade. Recent developments in external and internal trade flows for the European Union are then briefly reviewed to provide a broader context for the empirical analysis that follows. Following a description of the econometric framework and variables, panel estimates of the EMU trade effects at the area-wide and national levels are then examined. Determinants underlying cross-country differences with respect to trade gains is then further explored. The final section offers concluding remarks. II. R elated L iterature The

Mr. Hamid Faruqee

References Tables 1. EMU Impact on Trade 2. Area-Wide and Country EMU Trade Effects 3. Intra-Industry Trade Shares, 1997 4. “Internal Market Scoreboard,” 1998 Appendix Tables A1. Panel Unit Root Tests A2. Panel Cointegration Statistics A3. EMU Trade Effects and Country Deviations Figures 1. Recent Trends in Euro-Area Goods Trade 2. Intra-Area Trade Gains under EMU 3. Dynamic Pattern of EMU Trade Effects 4. Trade Creation versus Trade Diversion Under EMU 5. Potential Determinants of EMU Trade Gains at the Country Level

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper of Portugal highlights the discussions on the requirement of policies to overcome structural and cyclical impediments to growth, and secure fiscal consolidation. It analyzes the strength of the company balance sheets in supporting the rebound from recession, and also the links between corporate balance sheet strength and investment. It reviews the challenges in the Portuguese economy, the impact of European Union enlargement on Portuguese trade, the pension prospects, and the implications of various policy reform scenarios.
Mr. Benedict J. Clements, Mr. Zenon Kontolemis, and Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy
This study identifies differences in the monetary policy transmission mechanism across the countries in the euro area. It is argued that part of the differences in the response of economic activity to monetary policy during the pre-EMU period, found in other studies, reflected differences in monetary policy reaction functions, rather than different transmission mechanisms. In light of this, the paper constructs an empirical model on the basis of common reaction functions. The results confirm that even when a common monetary policy is implemented, its effects on economic activity are likely to differ across EMU countries. The paper also constructs an aggregate measure of the effect of monetary policy on prices and output. Finally, the paper examines the relative strength of the credit, exchange rate, and interest rate channels of monetary transmission in EMU countries.
Mr. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, Mr. Xavier Debrun, and Mr. Franc Klaassen
It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved in such coordination in the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization. A simple model identifies the circumstances under which coordination may be desirable. Coordination is beneficial when the cross-country correlation of the shocks is low. However, given the potentially adverse reaction by the ECB (as a result of free-riding or a conflict on the orientation of the policy mix), fiscal coordination is likely to prove counterproductive when demand or supply shocks are highly symmetric across countries and the governments are unable to acquire a strategic leadership position vis-à-vis the ECB.
Mr. Paul R Masson and Mr. Bart Turtelboom
The success of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will depend on the stability of the euro. The monetary policy framework is yet to be decided, but is likely to involve either money or inflation targeting. Stochastic simulations compare the outcomes for major macroeconomic and financial variables pre- and post-EMU under both policy rules, as well as under an inflation targeting rule that includes output. Implications for the euro as a reserve currency are examined in the light of the expected returns and covariances among reserve currencies. The role of the exchange rate as an indicator and incentives for policy coordination with other major countries are also discussed.
Ms. Susana Garcia Cervero, J. Humberto Lopez, Mr. Enrique Alberola Ila, and Mr. Angel J. Ubide
This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.