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Mr. Phillip L Swagel, Mr. Steven V Dunaway, and Mr. Martin D Kaufman

Disposable Income, Output, and EI Transfers 3. Canada: EI Generosity Index References

International Monetary Fund

Per-Capita Tables IV. 1. Canada: Convergence Equation, with Migration Channel 2. Canada: Convergence Equation, with Migration Channel and Fixed Effects Figures IV. 1. Canada: Dispersion of Provincial Output and Disposable Income 2. Canada: Changes in Disposable Income, Output, and EI Transfers 3. Canada: EI Generosity Index

Mr. Phillip L Swagel, Mr. Steven V Dunaway, and Mr. Martin D Kaufman

convergence in income compared with output has reflected the significant redistributive effects of federal government transfer programs. For example, in 2000, Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island—provinces with relatively lower levels of per capita output—received 3–3½ times the national average in per capita EI benefits, up from 2–2½ times the national average in 1980 (see Figure 2 ). All other provinces actually received smaller per capita EI transfers in real terms, and the amount directed toward Ontario and Quebec—which are relatively more productive—fell compared to

International Monetary Fund

rose from 67 percent of the national average in 1981 to 81 percent in 2000. 6. The relatively more rapid convergence in income compared with output has reflected the significant redistributive effects of federal government transfer programs. For example, in 2000, Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island—provinces with relatively lower levels of per capita output—received 3-3½ times the national average in per capita EI benefits, up from 2-2½ times the national average in 1980 (see Figure 2 ). All other provinces actually received smaller per capita EI transfers in

Mr. Phillip L Swagel, Mr. Steven V Dunaway, and Mr. Martin D Kaufman
Differences in per capita output across Canadian provinces have narrowed less than disparities in per capita income in past decades. Using a panel regression framework, this paper studies the differential impact of federal transfer programs on output convergence. The evidence suggests that while the Employment Insurance (EI) system seems to have had a significant negative effect on output convergence?by discouraging migration within Canada?the Equalization transfers may have helped spur convergence. The EI system, despite reforms introduced in the 1990s, still appears to contain features that deter labor mobility.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper assesses the long-term fiscal position of Canada. Simulations based on current tax and spending policies suggest that the fiscal position will remain favorable until well into the middle of the century, and relatively modest adjustments would be required to make these policies sustainable in the long term. The analysis also illustrates that these conclusions could be easily overturned if pressures to spend the planning surpluses that are expected to emerge in coming years are not resisted, and if measures are not put in place to contain the cost of health care.
International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper assesses the long-term fiscal position of Canada. Simulations based on current tax and spending policies suggest that the fiscal position will remain favorable until well into the middle of the century, and relatively modest adjustments would be required to make these policies sustainable in the long term. The analysis also illustrates that these conclusions could be easily overturned if pressures to spend the planning surpluses that are expected to emerge in coming years are not resisted, and if measures are not put in place to contain the cost of health care.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper assesses the long-term fiscal position of Canada. Simulations based on current tax and spending policies suggest that the fiscal position will remain favorable until well into the middle of the century, and relatively modest adjustments would be required to make these policies sustainable in the long term. The analysis also illustrates that these conclusions could be easily overturned if pressures to spend the planning surpluses that are expected to emerge in coming years are not resisted, and if measures are not put in place to contain the cost of health care.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper assesses the long-term fiscal position of Canada. Simulations based on current tax and spending policies suggest that the fiscal position will remain favorable until well into the middle of the century, and relatively modest adjustments would be required to make these policies sustainable in the long term. The analysis also illustrates that these conclusions could be easily overturned if pressures to spend the planning surpluses that are expected to emerge in coming years are not resisted, and if measures are not put in place to contain the cost of health care.