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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

’s upgraded impaired assets classification and provisioning standard that would incentivize write-offs is now expected to come into effect by January 2020. Credit to Private Sector (In billions of EC dollars) Source: Staff calculations based on ECCB data. Banking Sector Loan Portfolio (In percent) Source: Staff calculations based on ECCB data. ECCU: Estimated Overseas Investments (Indigenous commercial banks, in percent) Sources: Staff estimates based on ECCB data. 4. Non-banks, particularly credit union and insurance

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Currency Union’s (ECCU) member economies to improve data sources and align compilation practices with the guidelines of the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual . The compilation of ESS for Anguilla is a joint exercise between the ASD and the ECCB. Data are collected by the ASD, except data on banks and some other entities that are collected by the ECCB. 2 The AHMC provided the ECCB with row data for 2014, 2015 and 2016 in output tables without the due data quality assessment from the ASD in early 2017. A mission to

Mr. Alejandro D Guerson

.16 0.52 0.25 0.71 0.32 ECCU 3.79 1.90 5.63 2.78 9.55 4.61 13.46 6.15 Source: ECCB data, WEO, and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Stochastic simulations for targeted probabilities of Stabilization Fund depletion. The assumed reallocation from government consumption to capital spending over the cycle results in a significant increase in public investment. For example, under a RSF with depletion probability of 0.01, ECCU countries would increase public investment in the range of 0.5–1.5 percent of GDP per year on average

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted in The Valley, Anguilla, during March 27–31, 2017. This was the first mission to Anguilla carried out as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on external sector statistics (ESS) and in response to requests from the Anguilla Statistics Department (ASD) of Anguilla’s Ministry of Finance, Economic Development, Commerce, Tourism, Land & Physical Planning (MFED).1 The purpose of the mission was to assist the ASD in strengthening the compilation and dissemination of ESS. This is intended to facilitate a robust assessment of external sector developments and policy impact. Reliable ESS are essential for informed economic policy-making by the authorities.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Residual Wedged output and IC, VAT data provided more accurate output estimate and higher I/O ratio Computer and information services Volume and price update CPV output Volume and price update CPV IC Residual Volume extrapolation using employment 2018 I/O ratio Residual Wedged IC, VAT data provided more accurate output estimate and higher I/O ratio Financial Intermediation ECCB data and financial statements ECCB data and financial statements Residual Price deflation and volume extrapolation Deflate CPV IC Residual No wedge

Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
This paper quantifies the savings obtained from risk pooling with a Regional Stabilization Fund (RSF) for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to estimate the size of a RSF conditional on probabilities of depletion under specific saving-withdrawal rules. Results indicate that regional risk pooling requires about half of the saving amount relative to the sum of individual-country savings. In addition to reducing the amount of saving requirements for stabilization, the RSF can improve welfare by realocating government consumption savings during booms towards public investment during recessions, resulting in an increase of public investment in the range of 0.5-1.5 percent of GDP per year depending on the country, with positive growth dividends. Moreover, the RSF also reduces the dispersion of public debt outcomes in light of the cross-country cyclical synchronicity of output and revenue, thereby strengthening the stability of the regional currency board.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s 2019 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). ECCU’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated from 3/4 percent in 2017 to 3 3/4 percent in 2018, reflecting buoyancy in the tourism sector, sizable Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows, and a recovery from the 2017 hurricanes in Anguilla and Dominica, which were supported by large public investments in reconstruction. Fiscal deficits increased in 2018–2019, but they have remained moderate. Efforts are needed to streamline, and re-balance tax incentives based on clear principles consistent with international best practices. External imbalances are sizable and significant financial sector vulnerabilities affect both banks and non-banks. Growth is projected to gradually moderate toward its long-term average of 2 1/4 percent as the cyclical momentum normalizes and CBI inflows ease. These trends would also contribute to wider fiscal deficits, ending the downward drift in public debt dynamics. The outlook is clouded by downside risks, including a possible intensification of natural disasters and financial sector weaknesses.
Mr. Simon Cueva, Mr. Stephen Tokarick, Mr. Erik J. Lundback, Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky, and Mr. Samuel P. Itam

factors in setting public sector wages. First, public sector salary levels, as well as their regular increments, should be formed with a view to ensuring that wage growth does not compromise the country’s ability to earn foreign exchange. Second, close attention should be given to wage setting in the neighboring countries, as the flow of labor among the countries that comprise the currency union are not negligible. Against this background, the actual pattern of public sector wages in the OECS was reviewed (based on country and ECCB data) by focusing on comparable

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

between 0.9 and 2.1, the output elasticities for reductions in transfers and goods and services are still sizable. 10 It is important to note that unlike in much of the literature on government spending multipliers the elasticities reflect permanent increases in output levels from a change in the spending composition, not from a change in the level of total spending. General Equilibrium Impact from Additional Investment (change in percent relative to steady state) Sources: ECCB data, WEQ, and IMF Staff calculations. 30. The boost from greater public

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

.7 Sources: ECCB; Central Statistics offices. 1/ BPM5 columns show IMF staff estimates, BPM6 columns show official ECCB data. 2/ September 2018 revision by ECCB. The current account (CA) deficit of the ECCU reached an estimated 8.0 percent of GDP in 2017, slightly up from 7.7 percent in 2016. 2 Most ECCU countries are running CA deficits but have shown some improvement in their external balances compared to 2016 with newly released data. The current account deficit is projected to worsen in 2018, reflecting increased construction imports to Dominica