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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses a growth-at-risk (GaR) model which is used to compute a distribution of expected GDP growth for Benin. The model predicts growth rates of ~6.7 percent for 2019 and a range of 6.4–6.8 percent in the medium-term (depending on the specification). Risks to future growth are assessed to be tilted to the downside. 2019 GDP growth is estimated around 6.7 percent, on average, across several specifications. The model considers external factors (world trade, global financial conditions, trade policy uncertainty, and US consumer sentiment), country-specific exposures to external factors (commodity terms of trade and trade-partner growth), and domestic factors (domestic financial conditions, fiscal policy, and the exchange rate). The analysis reveals that growth projections estimated both for the median and mode are slightly higher conditioned on 2018 data, yet when expectations about 2019 are considered using World Economic Outlook projections they fall. Overall, risks seem to be tilted to the downside. Medium term growth is estimated at between 6.4 and 6.8 percent. Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, yet less skewed than in the short term.
Samy Ben Naceur, Barbara Casu, and Hichem Ben-Khedhiri

Countries  5. Further DEA Estimates  6. Second-stage regression results for bank efficiency (Meta Frontier approach) -Tobit estimation.  7. Second-stage regression results for bank efficiency (Meta Frontier approach) - OLS estimation.  8. Second-stage regression results for bank performance (ROA estimations)  Figures 1. Meta-frontier DEA Efficiency Scores  2. Meta-technology Ratios  3. Meta-technology Ratios with Portugal  Appendixes 1: Data Envelopment Analysis  References

Samya Beidas-Strom

spending cuts lead to larger efficiency gains? 4. Average weights of main spending categories 5. Robustness: Weighted DEA efficiency scores 6. Robustness: Did sub-regions with weaker initial efficiency converge more? 7. Robustness: Did deeper spending cuts lead to larger efficiency gains? 8. Determinants of sub-regional public spending efficiency A.1. Public Spending Pre- and Post-crisis A.2. Achievement Outputs Pre- and Post-crisis A.3. Robustness: Alternative Public Sector Efficiency Indicators—Input-Oriented A.4. Robustness: Alternative Public Sector

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

, DEA efficiency scores, and sensitivity analysis illustrate the difficulties faced by Beninese banks in generating profits and efficiently mobilizing resources . The income statement decomposition identifies high provisions, overhead expenses and cost of deposits as the biggest drivers behind the weak profitability of Beninese banking sector. These findings are corroborated by DEA efficiency scores, which find that Benin’s banks are among the least efficient banking institutions in the region. Within Beninese banking sector, DEA results show that small and domestic

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

airline capacity (km per sq. km). 8. The results from the analysis suggest that the WAEMU’s public investment efficiency compares unfavorably with the benchmark groups (chart). The DEA results show that while WAEMU’s investment efficiency is broadly in line with the SSA average, it is lagging behind the peer groups’ averages (chart). Given the gap of 10 percent between WAEMU’s efficiency and sub-Saharan African benchmark, there is significant scope for improving public investment efficiency. DEA Efficiency Scores Relative to Selected Economies (2012

International Monetary Fund

economies without strict employment protection legislation for regular employees (EPL). The use of ALMPs varies substantially across OECD economies. It has been relatively high in most European economies (including in Germany, Sweden and Spain). However, it has been substantially lower outside Europe and in emerging economies (including in New Zealand, Korea and Mexico). Public Spending on Active Labor Market Policies (In percent of GDP), 2004-07 Source: OECD. DEA Efficiency Scores for Active Labor Market Policies, 2004-07 Source: Fund staff

International Monetary Fund
The human cost of the recent global crisis is reflected in its impact on the labor market. Explaining why economies with similar downturns had very different employment trends can help design policies to reduce such costs and improve labor markets. This paper analyzes the recent employment experiences of six economies: Germany, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, and Sweden. These economies represent a wide range of labor market institutions, policy responses, and outcomes to the crisis. The divergence of labor market outcomes and of the effectiveness of policies during the crisis can be explained by the interaction between the nature of the shocks and differences in the structure and institutions of each country’s economy. The worst job losses compared to the drop in output followed permanent shocks, particularly in dual labor markets and in the presence of wage rigidities. Policies to avoid job cuts were much more effective when they were well-targeted and responded to temporary shocks. In contrast, policies to facilitate labor movements were more appropriate following permanent shocks.
Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon

, efficiency scores imply the proportional amount by which output could be increased while leaving input (public stock of capital) unchanged. 12 PFDH and DEA Efficiency Scores The estimated efficiency scores suggest that the relative efficiency of MCDOEs tends to be lower than in non-MCD commodity-exporting countries. 13 Within the MCDOEs, countries in the GCC perform better than the non-GCC MCD countries. The performance of the GCC group, however, is weaker than that of the non-MCD commodity exporters with strong institutions (e.g., Australia, Canada), or the best

Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.