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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

variables measuring the restrictions to zero while at the same time setting the CBI variable for Cuba to one, that is we assume that the US includes Cuba as part of the CBI initiative. The results indicate that US-Cuba tourist arrivals could increase between 3 and 5.6 million depending on the model. 10 These results are close to the ones presented in Romeu (2014) where the author estimates that US tourists visiting Cuba would increase between 3 and 3.5 million. The models estimated above do not allow for a direct measure of trade diversion effects, that is, how many

Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.