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Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein

importers. CIS oil importers are among the most remittance dependent economies in the world. Remittances constitute about 45 percent of GDP in Tajikistan, 30 percent in the Kyrgyz Republic, 24 percent in Moldova, and 20 percent of GDP in Armenia as of 2014, with the bulk of these remittances originating from Russia. Remittances from Russia have grown substantially over the past decade and appear to be closely correlated with the activity in Russia’s non-tradable sector, where most of the migrant workers tend to work. The non-tradable sector activity is, in turn, highly

Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein

transmission of shocks from Russia to CIS oil importers. CIS oil importers are among the most remittance dependent economies in the world. Remittances constitute about 45 percent of GDP in Tajikistan, 30 percent in the Kyrgyz Republic, 24 percent in Moldova, and 20 percent of GDP in Armenia as of 2014, with the bulk of these remittances originating from Russia. Remittances from Russia have grown substantially over the past decade and appear to be closely correlated with the activity in Russia’s non-tradable sector, where most of the migrant workers tend to work. The non

International Monetary Fund

, through trade, remittances and FDI channels. Belarus and Turkmenistan have the largest share of exports to Russia (over 10 percent of GDP). The remittances channel is particularly prominent for CIS oil importers, which are among the most remittance dependent economies in the world. The FDI channel is also important for a number of countries (Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, and Tajikistan). The financial sector channel is more limited, given the relatively small presence of Russian banks, although exchange rate depreciations may have already begun to pose risks to financial

Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, and Fahad Alturki

affect the individual significance of the right hand side variables. However, the regression for the CIS oil importers shows clearly that the remittance linkage dominates the other two channels. This result is understandable as the oil importing countries are also the ones that have significant migrants in Russia. Table 7. Determinants of GDP growth in CIS countries--combined Variables All CIS countries (excl. Russia) Oil importer CIS countries (excl. Russia) Own GDP growth (lagged) 0.497*** 0.486*** 0.392*** 0

International Monetary Fund
Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.
Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, and Fahad Alturki
We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

channel is particularly prominent for CIS oil importers, which are among the most remittance-dependent economies in the world. In 2014, remittances constituted close to 20 percent of GDP in Armenia, 24 percent of GDP in Moldova, 30 percent of GDP in the Kyrgyz Republic and 45 percent of GDP in Tajikistan, mainly sourced out of Russia. The FDI channel is also important for a number of CIS countries (Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, and Tajikistan), Bulgaria and Montenegro. The financial sector channel is more limited, given the relatively small presence of Russian banks