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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Despite efforts to consolidate, fiscal deficits will remain large in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) oil exporters, and Algeria over the medium term. Countries will need robust strategies to finance these deficits, striking a balance between drawing down assets and issuing debt. These financing choices should be underpinned by strong institutional arrangements and clear medium-term fiscal frameworks. In the short term, constraints on domestic financing sources will lead countries to rely heavily on external financing. But

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

many GCC and CCA exporters (blue lines in Figure 4.2 ). In a number of countries, medium-term fiscal balances will fall well short of the levels needed to ensure that an adequate portion of the income from exhaustible oil and gas reserves is saved for future generations ( Figure 4.3 ). Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia have medium-term fiscal gaps of some 15—25 percentage points of non-oil GDP, while conflict-torn Libya has a gap of more than 50 percent of non-oil GDP. 5 Iran, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and the CCA oil exporters have fairly small gaps of

Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.
Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.
Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon

features a centralized project information platform that serves as the basis for a historical analysis of the costs and demands of various types of projects. V. Main Findings and Policy Implications There is substantial room to improve public investment efficiency in MENA and CCA oil exporters . Improving the efficiency of sizable investment programs in these countries could help boost growth and speed up progress in realizing the development agenda. In particular, the MCDOEs’ performance seems weak relative to that of the best non-MCDOE performers in

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

increases in public spending and domestic tax revenues were also noticeable in other oil importing Caucasus and Central Asian (CCA) countries (Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyz Republic), on average, public spending in these countries was more oriented towards current spending and the increase in domestic tax revenues was greater. CCA oil exporters bucked the trend, with a more modest increase in public spending and a decline in domestic tax revenue on average, reflecting the collapse in commodities prices since late 2014. Figure 1. Tajikistan: Public Spending and

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

surpluses and rising breakeven oil prices expose the CCA oil exporters to greater fiscal risks and call for gradually strengthening fiscal positions by containing expenditure growth and improving tax collection. A pause in fiscal consolidation is justifiable in countries with less favorable near-term growth prospects, particularly among the region’s oil importers, though fiscal consolidation needs to resume, once cyclical conditions allow to rebuild buffers against future shocks. Renewed inflation pressures call for cautionary monetary policy. Monetary tightening may be