Pavol Jurca, Ján Klacso, Eugen Tereanu, Marco Forletta, and Mr. Marco Gross
We develop a semi-structural quantitative framework that combines micro and macroeconomic data to assess the effectiveness of combinations of borrower-based macroprudential measures in Slovakia. We expand on the integrated dynamic household balance sheet model of Gross and Población (2017) by introducing an endogenous loan granting feature, in turn to quantify the potential (ex-ante) impact of macroprudential measures on resilience parameters, compared with a counterfactual no-policy scenario, under adverse macroeconomic conditions. We conclude that (1) borrower-based measures can noticeably improve household and bank resilience to macroeconomic downturns, in particular when multiple measures are applied; (2) those measures tend to complement each other, as the impact of individual instruments is transmitted via different channels; and (3) the resilience benefits are more sizeable if the measures effectively limit the accumulation of risks before an economic downturn occurs, suggesting that an early, preemptive implementation of borrower-based measures is indeed warranted.
Mr. Marco Gross, Mr. Thierry Tressel, Xiaodan Ding, and Eugen Tereanu
We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.
Mr. Luis Brandao Marques, Mr. R. G Gelos, Mr. Machiko Narita, and Erlend Nier
This paper takes a new approach to assess the costs and benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential, monetary, foreign exchange interventions, and capital flow management—in response to changes in financial conditions. The approach evaluates net benefits of policies using quadratic loss functions, estimating policy effects on the full distribution of future output growth and inflation with quantile regressions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth stemming from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses, calling for caution in the use of monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” These findings hold when policies are used in response to easing global financial conditions. Buying foreign-exchange or tightening capital controls has small net benefits.
We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks’ loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.
Xiaodan Ding, Mr. Marco Gross, Mr. Ivo Krznar, Mr. Dimitrios Laliotis, Mr. Fabian Lipinsky, Pavel Lukyantsau, and Mr. Thierry Tressel
This paper presents the framework underlying the Global Bank Stress Test (GST) and applies it to recent data and global scenarios to illustrate the usefulness of the framework in assessing the potential impact of global shocks on banks around the world. The results of this latest update of the GST continue to point to relatively lower levels of resilience of banks in emerging market economies (EMs) than in advanced economies (AEs).
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Since the 2016 FSAP, the Finnish authorities have made steady progress in improving the country’s macroprudential policy framework. The authorities have expanded the macroprudential policy toolkit by introducing a systemic risk buffer (SyRB) and a minimum risk weight for mortgage loans. They have also begun developing a positive credit register to record individual borrower data. These granular data will help the authorities to analyze household indebtedness and calibrate macroprudential tools to appropriately target specific vulnerabilities. In addition, cooperation arrangements with other Nordic countries have been expanded by signing an updated Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to promote financial stability, including by establishing common procedures for information sharing and coordination.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Korea has recovered impressively from the COVID-19 pandemic, which is a testament to its strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ able policy responses. Activity has surpassed pre-covid levels despite multiple COVID waves. The recovery was supported by the effective containment of the pandemic, including rapid vaccination in 2021, and pursuing proactive economic policy support, which helped minimize economic scarring, sustain income growth, and maintain financial stability. Given Korea’s high global integration, strong external demand also supported the recovery. The upcoming presidential election offers a window of opportunity to reinvigorate structural reforms.
Erlend Nier, Radu Popa, Maral Shamloo, and Liviu Voinea
We provide empirical evidence to support the calibration of a limit on household indebtedness levels, in the form of a cap on the debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratio, in order to reduce the probability of borrower defaults in Romania. The analysis establishes two findings that are new to the literature. First, we show that the relationship between DSTI and probability of default is non-linear, with probability of default responding to increases in DSTI only after a certain threshold. Second, we establish that consumer loan defaults occur at lower levels of DSTI compared to mortgages. Our results support the recent regulation adopted by the National Bank of Romania, limiting the household DSTI at origination to 40 percent for new mortgages and consumer loans. Our counterfactual analysis indicates that had the limit been in place for all the loans in our sample, the probability of default (PD) would have been lower by 23 percent.