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Marco Reuter
Marco Reuter
I study an entrepreneur’s incentives to build a decentralized platform using a blockchain. The entrepreneur can either build the platform using a regular company and retain control of the platform, or build the platform using a blockchain and surrender control of the platform. In either case, the platform’s users experience a locked-in effect. I show that a decentralized implementation of the platform is both (i) more profitable for the entrepreneur and (ii) a Pareto improvement, if and only if the size of the locked-in effect exceeds some threshold. Further, progressive decentralization through airdrops can be optimal.
Hervé Tourpe, Ashley Lannquist, and Gabriel Soderberg
As central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects progress around the world, there is increased need for a project management methodology that is appropriate for CBDC. This paper develops a CBDC-specific project management methodology that establishes a common terminology and offers guidance to development teams on best practices for addressing the complex requirements and risks associated with CBDC. It is centered on an original five-step approach called the “5P Methodology”: preparation, proof-of-concept, prototypes, pilots, and production. The methodology emphasizes a phased approach to CBDC research and development, with strong focus on research preparation, experimentation and testing, risk management, stakeholder engagement, and cyber resilience.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical assistance report describes the regulation and supervision of crypto assets in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (LAO P.D.R.). Crypto uptake in Lao P.D.R. seems to be limited so far, and so consumer protection risks appear contained. The authorities are in the process of considering an appropriate regulatory and supervisory framework for mining and trading activities. The current regulatory framework for crypto trading platforms is a positive step to managing risks but would benefit from key prudential and conduct additions. Authorities should continue their efforts to coordinate domestically and cooperate with foreign peer regulators. Due to the novelty of the industry and the limited size of the Lao PDR market, the most prominent risks arising from crypto trading in the short term are likely to be generated by complex interconnections within crypto markets and broader financial markets. The mission commends the authorities in their coordinated approach to this new regime, and would like to encourage them to continue deepening that coordination.
Ms. Burcu Hacibedel and Hector Perez-Saiz
Failures in the crypto space—including the fall of Terra USD and the FTX debacle—have sparked calls for strengthening countries’ policy frameworks for crypto assets, including by enhanced regulation and supervision. How have these heightened concerns about crypto assets been picked up in systemic risk assessment, and what can be done going forward? In this paper, we introduce a conceptual macrofinancial framework to understand and track systemic risks stemming from crypto assets. Specifically, we propose a country-level Crypto-Risk Assessment Matrix (C-RAM) to summarize the main vulnerabilities, useful indicators, potential triggers and potential policy responses related to the crypto sector. We also discuss how experts and officials can weave in specific vulnerabilities stemming from crypto asset activity into their assessment of systemic risk, and how they can provide policy advice and take action to help contain systemic risks when needed.
Ms. Natasha X Che, Alexander Copestake, Davide Furceri, and Tammaro Terracciano
We examine fluctuations in crypto markets and their relationships to global equity markets and US monetary policy. We identify a single price component—which we label the “crypto factor”—that explains 80% of variation in crypto prices, and show that its increasing correlation with equity markets coincided with the entry of institutional investors into crypto markets. We also document that, as for equities, US Fed tightening reduces the crypto factor through the risk-taking channel—in contrast to claims that crypto assets provide a hedge against market risk. Finally, we show that a stylized heterogeneous-agent model with time-varying aggregate risk aversion can explain our empirical findings, and highlights possible spillovers from crypto to equity markets if the participation of institutional investors ever became large.