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Mr. Graham L Slack

Setting Institutional Setting (Capacity, Statistical Outputs, Shortcomings, and Challenges) 4.1 Four months after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accord in December 1995, the first of a series of monetary and financial statistics missions from the IMF’s Statistics Department began work in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Countrywide monetary and financial statistics were urgently sought by the BiH authorities and the IMF to support efforts to establish a new central bank and a countrywide currency, as called for in BiH’s constitution. 1 4.2 BiH

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

reform implementation. Given the urgency of the request, the authorities are not in a position to request an augmentation under the EFF. The authorities have expressed an interest in a successor EFF. Request . The Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) authorities are requesting financial assistance under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), equivalent to 100 percent of quota (about €330 million), to help close the projected urgent balance of payments need, which, if not addressed, would result in immediate and severe economic disruption. Key policy recommendations

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Figure 2. Bosnia and Herzegovina: High Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity Sources:BiH authority; and IMF staff calculations. Figure 3. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Economic Developments Sources:BiH authority; and IMF staff calculations. 5. After a year-long deflation, headline inflation surged, driven by accelerating food and transport prices . Monthly inflation reached 10.2 percent (y/y) in March 2022, while the average 12-month inflation rose to 4.4 percent (from a trough of -1.4 percent in March 2021). Core inflation, while

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

political environment in the recent years, the BiH authorities have remained committed to their reform agenda under the current EFF-supported program. Although missing some PCs and structural benchmarks, which have delayed the program reviews, sizable efforts have been made to strengthen public finances, increase resilience of the financial regulatory and supervisory framework, enhance the business environment and economic competitiveness. Economic activity has strengthened and returned to economic potential, driven by strong private consumption and exports, which has

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

The Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) authorities would like to thank Mission Chief Mr. Petri and his team for the focused report and close cooperation, particularly in this difficult environment. They highly value staff’s engagement in the discussions and appreciate the analysis, which rightly focuses on the most pressing challenges posed by the COVID-19 global crisis and the authorities’ policy response, as well as on the needed structural reforms going forward. The authorities consent to the publication of the Staff Report and will continue to consult with the

International Monetary Fund
This Article 2008 IV Consultation highlights that Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economy has been exhibiting robust growth, but imbalances have emerged. The current account deficit has widened and underlying inflation has picked up. Procyclical fiscal policy has added to these imbalances. Moreover, large public-sector wage increases threaten to spill over to private sector settlements, thus exacerbating inflation pressures and weighing on competitiveness. Credit growth has started to slow down, and tightened financial conditions have resulted in a fall in bank profitability.
International Monetary Fund
The global economic and financial crisis found the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina in a vulnerable position. The government put together a comprehensive program supported by the International Monetary Fund. The stabilization program has helped mitigate the impact of the global financial crisis on the economy. With the economy now emerging out of the recession, policy continuity is important. Medium-term fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by reforms in current spending while making room for capital expenditure. The response in the financial sector has been appropriate.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

(+=inflow) 400.8 248.9 240.5 351.4 365.6 (In percent of GDP) 2.9 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.2 Gross official reserves 4,013 4,413 4,886 5,288 5,739 (In months of imports) 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 (In percent of monetary base) 112.1 113.3 113.9 115.7 116.1 External debt, percent of GDP 63.7 62.9 63.8 61.1 61.0 Sources: BiH authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1 Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral

International Monetary Fund

somewhat below the convergence path traced by other countries at a similar point in transition. 1 Figure 1. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Income and Growth Sources: World Economic Outlook; BiH authorities; and IMF staff calculations. 4. The economy is experiencing an absorption boom, but capacity constraints are emerging . Solid output growth continued in 2007 supported by strong productivity gains, especially in the tradable sector. However, domestic demand—with broadly equivalent contributions from consumption and investment—took over as an engine of growth