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Milena Vučinić

Abstract

It is my pleasure to be here and to benefit from the exchange of opinions and experiences. As you may know, pursuant to the Central Bank of Montenegro Law, the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBCG) sets out fostering and maintaining the financial system stability and a sound banking system and safe and efficient payment systems as its main objectives. The financial system in Montenegro is bank-centric. In a dollarized (euroized) and bank-centric systems, such as the one in Montenegro, a stable financial system is a condition for creating and preserving the stability of the economic system.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.

Zsoka Koczan

’ participation in regional supply chains have been well-documented. Relatively little has, however, been written about capital flows to the Western Balkans. While sharing many of the characteristics of the New Member States, transition in the Western Balkans has lagged behind that in the New Member States, as reflected for instance in a still relatively less developed private sector, and correspondingly high unemployment rates. The Western Balkans economies are also often perceived to be less open ‘late arrivals’ to large capital flows. This paper aims to examine how capital

Zsoka Koczan
The boom and bust in capital flows to the New Member States of the European Union have received a considerable amount of attention; foreign direct investment and bank flows to the region and countries’ participation in regional supply chains have been well-documented. Relatively little has, however, been written about capital flows to the Western Balkans economies, which are often perceived to be ‘late arrivals’ to large capital flows. This paper aims to examine how capital flows to the Western Balkans compare with flows to the New Member States, in terms of levels as well as dynamics. We find that while financial integration took off somewhat later in the Western Balkans than in the New Member States, it has increased rapidly, despite still much lower capital account openness. Capital inflows as a share of GDP are comparable to those observed in the New Member States, (perhaps surprisingly) diverse in terms of source countries and broadly similar in composition, though with equity shares higher than they were in the New Member States at comparable levels of GDP per capita.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

macroeconomic policy in these economies? The Western Balkan economies came into the new century after a decade of conflict, tumult, and disruption. Macroeconomic stabilization was a priority. On those terms, the past 15 years—even including those following the financial crisis—have been manifestly better than the 1990s: growth rebounded, investment returned, and inflation was sharply reduced. Like other Emerging European economies, the Western Balkans experienced strong growth before the global financial crisis, fueled by bank credit and direct foreign investment; growth

International Monetary Fund

, Financial Stability Department, Director Keynote address: Julia Woerz, Oesterreische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division, Head: “How do interest rate differentials impact on euroization? Evidence from the OeNB’s Euro Survey” Romain Veyrune, International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Senior Economist: “Negative euro area interest rates and an effective de-euroization strategy” Session 2: Negative euro area interest rates and financial stability in Western Balkan economies Moderator: Natasha Ahmetaj, Bank of Albania, Second Deputy