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Luc Eyraud, Ms. Diva Singh, and Mr. Bennett W Sutton

Financial Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): International Bank Claims, Portfolio, and FDP 1 Sources: IMF, Balance of Payments Statistics; BIS, Consolidated Banking Statistics; IMF, Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey; and IMF, Coordinated Direct Investment Survey. 1 Values are not consolidated for intra-regional trade. 2 BIS bank lending, immediate borrower basis. Foreign claims includes cross-border lending, holdings of debt and equity securities, and local currency lending to residents. 3 Aggregate assets plus liabilities of Latin

Luc Eyraud, Ms. Diva Singh, and Mr. Bennett W Sutton
The timing is ripe to pursue greater regional financial integration in Latin America given the withdrawal of some global banks from the region and the weakening of growth prospects. Important initiatives are ongoing to foster financial integration. Failure to capitalize on this would represent a significant missed opportunity. This paper examines the scope for further global and regional financial integration in Latin America, based on economic fundamentals and comparisons to other emerging regions, and quantifies the potential macroeconomic gains that such integration could bring. The analysis suggests that closing the financial integration gap could boost GDP growth be ¼ - ¾ percentage point in these countries, on average.
Ms. Diva Singh

; Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey and Coordinated Direct Investment Survey. Note: Values are not consolidated for intraregional trade. BIS = Bank for International Settlements; FDI = foreign direct investment. 1 BIS bank lending, immediate borrower basis. Foreign claims include cross-border lending, holdings of debt and equity securities, and local currency lending to residents. 2 Aggregate assets plus liabilities of Latin America, in percent of aggregate assets plus liabilities of all reporting countries. Intraregional integration in Latin America also

Ms. Benedicte Vibe Christensen

1980). However, by contrast to BIS reporting banks, which maintained their relative exposure up to the end of 1984, Swiss banks reduced their lending in both nominal and relative terms, especially in 1981 and 1982, to 6 percent of external assets by the end of 1984 ( Table 12 ). Lending to Central America (e.g., Mexico) was cut sharply in those years, but exposure to other Latin American countries, including Argentina and Brazil, was also reduced somewhat. In line with the overall trend in BIS bank lending, Swiss exposure to Eastern European countries was halved

Mr. Abdul d Abiad

holdings did not decrease, except in Malaysia, before the Asian crisis, indicating that the crisis was not anticipated by these funds. Similarly, BIS bank lending did not decrease, although BIS bank deposits by residents of Korea and Thailand increased pre-crisis, indicating capital flight in anticipation of the crisis. There was some evidence that currency forecasters expected a slight depreciation in Thailand, but not in the other Asian crisis countries. Finally, credit rating downgrades followed rather than preceded the crisis. They then examine more direct evidence

Kyuil Chung, Mr. Jong-Kun Lee, Ms. Elena Loukoianova, Mr. Hail Park, and Mr. Hyun S Shin
This paper examines how the financial activities of non-financial corporates (NFCs) in international markets potentially affects domestic monetary aggregates and financial conditions. Monetary aggregates reflect, in part, the activities of NFCs, who channel capital market financing into the domestic banking system, thereby influencing funding conditions and credit availability. Periods of capital inflows are also those when the domestic currency is appreciating, and such periods of rapid exchange rate appreciation coincide with increases in the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves, increasing the stock of narrow money. The paper examines economic significance of cross-country panel data on monetary aggregates and other measures of non-core bank liabilities. Non-core liabilities that reflect the activities of NFCs reflect broad credit conditions and predict global trade and growth.
Kyuil Chung, Mr. Jong-Kun Lee, Ms. Elena Loukoianova, Mr. Hail Park, and Mr. Hyun S Shin

increases in NFC deposits. In both Table 6 and Table 7 , the capital inflow variables are insignificant. However, for high income countries, the BIS bank lending variable enters with the positive sign and is significant at the 5 percent level in columns 4 and 5. The BIS lending variable is the cross-border claims of the BIS-reporting banks to non-banks, as given by BIS locational banking statistics, Table 7B. 9 We have seen that monetary aggregates associated with the claims of the NFC sector on the banking system convey information on the extent of the capital

Mr. Abdul d Abiad
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.
International Monetary Fund

consolidated for intra-regional trade. 2 BIS bank lending, immediate borrower basis. Foreign claims includes cross-border lending, holdings of debt and equity securities, and local currency lending to residents. 3 Aggregate assets plus liabilities of Latin America, in percent of aggregate assets plus liabilities of all reporting countries. 24. Regional integration in LA seems also less advanced than in other EM regions . Figure 3 shows that there is greater intra-regional investment, of both FDI and portfolio, amongst the ASEAN countries reflecting both the