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Mr. Alberto Behar and Ramin Hassan
In terms of size, the net income balance (IB) is comparable to the trade balance (TB) for many countries. Yet the role of the IB in mitigating external vulnerabilities or complicating external adjustment remains underexplored. This paper studies the role of the IB in stabilizing or destabilizing the current account over the cycle and in crises. Our results show that, due to a negative correlation with the TB, the IB significantly dampens the time series volatility of the current account for most countries. However, the IB generally does not improve during crisis episodes, so current account adjustment occurs entirely through improvements in the TB. The paper also estimates IB semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate (ER). Semi-elasticities are small for most countries, so the IB is generally not a significant channel through which the ER stabilizes the current account, and trade-based semi-elasticities are, with some important exceptions, good proxies for current account semi-elasticities used in external sector assessments.
Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita and Mr. Cameron McLoughlin

Front Matter Page African Department Contents I. Introduction II. Review of the Literature A. Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Monetization B. The Impact of Financial Sector Reforms on Financial Deepening C. Economic Growth Effects of Financial Sector Development III. Empirical Analysis A. The Model and Data B. Estimation Methodology C. Estimation Results IV. Conclusions References Figures 1. Mean Monetization Ratio: Average, 1973–2005 2. Monetization Ratio, 1970–2005 Tables 1. Descriptive Statistics 2. Summary

Luciana Juvenal and Mr. Rodolphe Blavy

Front Matter Page Western Hemisphere Department Authorized for distribution by Steven Phillips C ontents I. Introduction II. Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates A. Theoretical Underpinnings B. Estimation Methodology and SETAR Model C. Testing Procedures III. Estimation Results A. Testing for Nonlinear Price Convergence B. Estimated Transaction Costs C. Robustness of Results D. Half-Lives IV. Determinants of Thresholds in Real Exchange Rates V. Summary of Results and Conclusion Figure 1. Extent of Price

Mr. Juan Zalduendo

Front Matter Page Policy Development and Review Department Authorized for distribution by G. Russell Kincaid Contents I. Introduction II. An Analytical Framework of the Real Exchange Rate III. How are Bivariate Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Estimated? A. The International Comparison of Prices Dataset B. Estimation Methodology and Underlying Assumptions IV. Empirical Evidence A. Cross-Section Evidence B. Time-Series Evidence C. Discussion V. Conclusions References Tables 1. Estimation Results 2. Panel Estimation

Yongseok Shin and Ms. Rachel Glennerster

Front Matter Page Policy Development and Review Department Authorized for distribution by Ydahlia Metzgen Contents I. Introduction II. Description of Reforms A. Publication of Article IV Staff Reports B. The Special Data Dissemination Standard C. Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes III. Data and Estimation Methodology A. Data B. Estimation Methodology IV. Results A. Panel Estimation Results B. Two-Stage Least Squares C. Robustness Checks V. Do IMF Documents Contain News? A. Data B. Panel

Mr. Frigyes F Heinz and Ms. Yan M Sun

Front Matter Page European Department Contents Executive Summary I. Introduction II. Developments in Sovereign CDS Spreads and Fundamentals III. Literature Review IV. Data V. The Role of Spillovers from the Euro Area Periphery VI. The Role of Fundamentals in Explaining Sovereign CDS Spreads A. Explanatory Variables B. Estimation Methodology C. Estimation Results D. CDS Spreads Decomposition Based on the Model: An Illustration E. Out of Sample Forecast Performance: CDS Spreads in the Post-OMT Period VII. Summary and

and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio. JEL Classification Numbers: F3, G01, G11 Keywords: International Finance, Financial Crises, Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: sarslanalp@imf.org ; takahiro.tsuda@mof.go.jp Contents I. Introduction II. Motivation III. Sovereign Investor Base Estimates A. Overview B. Estimation Methodology for Each Investor Type C. Robustness Checks and Adjustments D. Limitations and Extensions IV. Key Trends In the EM

Mr. Alberto Behar and Ramin Hassan

Components B. NIIP and Income Balance III. Correlation and variance decomposition IV. The Behavior of the IB During Crisis Episodes A. Methodology B. Conditional Means Results C. Causal Inference V. The income balance and exchange rate adjustment A. Background B. Estimation Methodology C. Empirical Results VI. Concluding comments Annex I . A. Stylized Facts B. Definition of Crises External Crisis Fiscal Crises Financial Crises Real Crises C. Assumptions Underpinning FEct Methodology D. Estimation Procedure of FEct

Ms. Sharmini Coorey, Mr. Mauro Mecagni, and Mr. Erik Offerdal

Front Matter Page Policy Development and Review Department Contents Summary I. Introduction II. Review of the Literature and Analytical Framework A. Fiscal obligations and money growth B. Wage pressures C. Real exchange rate appreciation and capital inflows D. Relative price adjustment Evidence for transition economies Analytical approaches III. Empirical Evidence on Relative Price Behavior IV. Empirical Evidence on the Determinants of Inflation A. The basic model for inflation B. Estimation methodology C

Mr. Serkan Arslanalp and Mr. Takahiro Tsuda

Front Matter Page Monetary and Capital Markets Department Contents Executive Summary I. Introduction II. Motivation III. Methodology for Sovereign Investor Base Estimates A. Overview B. Estimation Methodology for Each Investor Type C. Robustness Checks and Adjustments D. Limitations and Extensions IV. Key Trends in The Post-Crisis Period A. How Did Foreign Demand Change? B. How Did Foreign Demand Change by Investor Type? C. How Did Domestic Investors React to Falls in Foreign Demand? D. How Did Domestic Bank Demand