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Benjamin Carton, Mr. Joannes Mongardini, and Yiqun Li
The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality, but depends on smartphone product release dates. Decomposing cycle from trend, we also show that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015. Asia, however, continues to gain in importance as the global tech manufacturer.
Benjamin Carton, Mr. Joannes Mongardini, and Yiqun Li

likely to have been particularly relevant in the fourth quarter of 2017, when Apple Inc. released the iPhone 8/8 Plus in October and the iPhone X a month later ( Appendix I ). To further elaborate on this point, it is worth looking specifically at the number of global Apple iPhone sales over the last five years ( Figure 3 ). Reflecting a booming global demand, sales surged from 35.1 million units in the first quarter of 2012 to 78.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2016. While a clear quarterly pattern seems to be emerging, where the second and third quarter sales

Mr. Joannes Mongardini and Aneta Radzikowski

.4 Source: IDC (2020) . Apple iPhone sales provide further evidence of the decline in global smartphone sales. The official Apple Inc. sales figures published in the company’s quarterly financial statements show that iPhone sales peaked in 2015 with the release of the iPhone 6S (September 2015). Sales then started declining in 2016-17 ( Figure 2 ). Apple, Inc. stopped publishing quarterly figures for iPhone sales in the fourth quarter of 2018. However, IDC estimates show a continued decline since then. 1 In 2019, these estimates show an 8.7 percent decline in

Mr. Joannes Mongardini and Aneta Radzikowski
Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.
Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

Chang 2002 ). To this day, there are still strong elements of industrial policy in advanced economies albeit in a quite indirect form. Mazzucato (2013) studies the direct contribution of government programs to what is commonly thought of as private innovations. For example, she shows that many components of the Apple iPhone, the product that made Apple one of the biggest companies in the world by market valuation, including its path-breaking touch screen technology, were originally developed thanks to government subsidies and in particular from defense programs

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov
Industrial policy is tainted with bad reputation among policymakers and academics and is often viewed as the road to perdition for developing economies. Yet the success of the Asian Miracles with industrial policy stands as an uncomfortable story that many ignore or claim it cannot be replicated. Using a theory and empirical evidence, we argue that one can learn more from miracles than failures. We suggest three key principles behind their success: (i) the support of domestic producers in sophisticated industries, beyond the initial comparative advantage; (ii) export orientation; and (iii) the pursuit of fierce competition with strict accountability.