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Ian W.H. Parry, Victor Mylonas, and Nate Vernon
Spreadsheet models are used to assess the environmental, fiscal, economic, and incidence effects of a wide range of options for reducing fossil fuel use in India. Among the most effective options is ramping up the existing coal tax. Annually increasing the tax by INR 150 ($2.25) per ton of coal from 2017 to 2030 avoids over 270,000 air pollution deaths, raises revenue of 1 percent of GDP in 2030, reduces CO2 emissions 12 percent, and generates net economic benefits of approximately 1 percent of GDP. The policy is mildly progressive and (at least initially) imposes a relatively modest cost burden on industries.
Ian W.H. Parry, Victor Mylonas, and Nate Vernon

’s scarce resources, by helping to curb use of polluting fuels that would otherwise be excessive. 6 Figure 1. Outdoor Air Pollution Mortality Rates and Pollution Concentrations, Selected Countries, 2010 Notes: PM2.5 is fine particulate matter (with diameter up to 2.5 micrometers) which is respirable and therefore harmful to human health. Pollution concentrations are averages of regional concentrations (measured by satellite data) weighted by regional population shares. The mortality data is air pollution deaths (from fossil fuels and other sources) estimated in

Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. Simon Black, and Nate Vernon
This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect their full private and social costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by mispricing fuels. The methodology improves over previous IMF analyses through more sophisticated estimation of costs and impacts of reform. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Just 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies). Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 191 countries.
Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. Simon Black, and Nate Vernon

subsidies, respectively. Electricity subsidies are evenly split across industrial and residential users (due to retail prices that are below cost-recovery levels). By region East Asia and the Pacific accounts for 48 percent of total energy subsidies . And by country, China remains the biggest subsidizer in absolute terms, followed by the US, Russia, India, and the EU. With efficient fuel prices in 2025 , projected global CO2 emissions are reduced 36 percent below baseline levels, fossil fuel air pollution deaths 32 percent (saving 0.9 million lives annually), tax

Mr. David Coady, Ian W.H. Parry, Nghia-Piotr Le, and Baoping Shang
This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.
Mr. David Coady, Ian W.H. Parry, Nghia-Piotr Le, and Baoping Shang

lower , fossil fuel air pollution deaths 46 percent lower, tax revenues higher by 3.8 percent of global GDP, and net economic benefits (environmental benefits less economic costs) would have amounted to 1.7 percent of global GDP. The rest of paper is organized as follows. Section 2 recaps the definition of corrective fuel taxes and energy subsidies and discusses procedures for updating their estimates with a particular focus on local air pollution given its importance for the results. Section 3 distills some of the quantitative results—the complete set of

Ian W.H. Parry, Victor Mylonas, and Nate Vernon

. Sensitivity of CO 2 Reductions from Paris Pledge and $70 Carbon Tax, 2030 Figures 1. Change in BAU CO 2 Emissions, 2015–2030 2. BAU Primary Fuel Mix, 2030 3. Outdoor Air Pollution Death Rates from Fossil Fuels, 2030 4. Percent Reduction in BAU CO 2 Emissions Implied by Paris Pledge, 2030 5. Reduction in CO 2 Emissions from Carbon Taxes, 2030 6. Revenue from Carbon Taxes, 2030 7. Reductions in Air Pollution Deaths from Carbon Taxes, 2030 8. Domestic Welfare Effect of Carbon Taxes, 2030 9. Burden of $20 Carbon Tax on Household Consumption Quintiles

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.