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International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix provides medium-term estimates of the cost of the government’s current anti-HTV/AIDS policies and programs in Botswana. The paper throws light on the policy challenges that Botswana authorities face in combating the crisis. The findings suggest that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS patients is likely to be high, about 10 percent of GDP, by 2010 (using the baseline estimates). The paper also analyzes Botswana’s approach to medium-term fiscal management.
Mr. Markus Haacker

indicator for the impact of HIV/AIDS on the demand for health services is the share of patients suffering from HTV-related diseases. A survey of various websites and news agencies suggests that the share of hospital beds occupied by AIDS patients ranges from 30 to 80 percent, and the World Bank estimates that the number of hospital beds needed for AIDS patients will exceed the total number of beds available now in Botswana by 2002, in Namibia by 2005, and in Swaziland by 2004. 11 Available demographic projections indicate that the situation in the health sector is

International Monetary Fund

patient per month. This estimate includes the provision of some HIV medications by their manufacturers at reduced or no cost. Capital costs are assumed to rise sharply and in rough proportion to the number of new patients entering treatment. 11. Estimates of the number of prospective AIDS patients are based on demographic and epidemiological projections by the International Programs Center of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. These projections of population and death due to AIDS (without antiretroviral therapy) are derived by fitting a demographic and epidemiological