regions) were orphans, and that HIV/AIDS had created 15 million orphans (UNAIDS, UNICEF, and USAID, 2004 ). 9
As Table 1.3 shows, these aggregates mask very substantial differences across regions and countries. Sub-Saharan Africa, the region worst affected by HIV/AIDS, has the largest share of orphans: its 43.4 million orphans in 2003 made up 12.3 percent of all children in the region; 12.3 million (28.3 percent) of these orphans were AIDSorphans. By 2010 the total number of orphans is projected to increase to 50 million (12.5 percent of all children), of whom 18
400-500,000 South Africans have AIDS, the most severe stage of HIV infection. The disease claims 800-1,300 lives each day, accounting for 30 percent of all deaths and 40 percent of deaths of adults aged 15-49. The accumulated number of AIDS deaths up to 2004 has been estimated by Statistics South Africa at nearly 1.5 million. Average life expectancy has fallen sharply, from 64 years in 1994 to 49 years in 2001. A growing number of AIDSorphans, estimated by the UN at nearly 700,000 in 2001, is placing strains on extended families, communities, and public services
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
been orphaned because of AIDS, and the government projects that the total number of underage AIDSorphans will rise to 120,000 (about 10 percent of the population) by 2010.
Rising demand for health services
There is no comprehensive study of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector in Swaziland. However, the IMF staff estimates, on the basis of studies of other countries in the region, that the demand for health services created by HIV/AIDS amounted to about 1 percent of GDP in 1999 and may rise to about 1.5 percent of GDP in the near term, as more Swazis
countries. HIV/AIDS has increased the number of orphans substantially in all of these countries: in several, about one-sixth of the child population were orphans in 2001, more than half of whom were AIDSorphans. Reflecting increasing mortality among adults, the share of orphans is expected to rise further in some of the worst-affected countries, to more than 20 percent by 2005 in Botswana and Zimbabwe. Estimated increases in dependency ratios suggest that orphans frequently live in lower-income households. For example, the dependency ratios for Zimbabwe (1.4 for
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.
stage of HIV infection. The disease claims 800–1,300 lives each day, accounting for 30 percent of all deaths nationally and 40 percent of deaths of adults aged 15–49. The accumulated number of AIDS deaths up to 2004 has been estimated by Statistics South Africa at nearly 1.5 million. Average life expectancy has fallen sharply, from 64 years in 1994 to 49 years in 2001. The growing number of AIDSorphans, estimated by the United Nations at nearly 700,000 in 2001, is placing strains on extended families, communities, and public services, and demographic models suggest
antiretroviral therapy to be made available to 25,000 patients by 2009.
4. Impact mitigation services: This component recognizes the close link between poverty and the spread of HIV/AIDS. It calls for augmented poverty reduction efforts and assistance to AIDSorphans through grants and other services.
5. Integrated and coordinated program management: This component focuses on workshops and training to allow the authorities, NGOs, faith-based organizations, and others involved in the fight against HIV/AIDS in Namibia to coordinate and target their efforts.