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Andras Komaromi

necessary control variables. This formulation includes higher order indirect exposures (e.g. L E U S , t k , for k = 2, … , K ) that would capture long supply-chain links. We make three assumptions to take this model to the data. First, we take K = 2. That is, we only go one step further than our baseline results and assume away any effect of lockdowns three and more steps away from the importing country. Given the short-lived nature of direct lockdown effects, especially in relation to global delivery lags involved in seaborne trade, our prior was that