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Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister and Mr. Jens R Clausen

information set. In Italy, adding inventories also improves growth forecasts for forecast horizons of four quarters or less. The beneficial effect on forecasting performance does not hold for unfiltered growth or for high frequencies of growth. At cyclical frequencies in France, however, adding inventories improves forecasts for horizons of four quarters or less. Of note, growth forecasts from perfect foresight inventory models are typically better than those of dynamically forecasted changes in inventories. Table 6. Assessing the Information Content of Inventories in