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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

flows leads to price pressures and a reduction in demand from other source markets. This effect, could help offset some of the potential loss of US tourists once tourism flows between the US and Cuba are restored. However, the extent of the offset will not only depend on the substitution effect but also on the relative share of US to non-US tourist arrivals in each country. A. Estimating US-Cuba tourism flows To estimate the potential gain in US tourist arrivals to Cuba we calculate a counterfactual scenario using the estimations in Table 1 . We set both of the

Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

Front Matter Page Western Hemisphere Department Table of Contents ABSTRACT I. INTRODUCTION II. STYLIZED FACTS AND LONG TERM TRENDS IN CARIBBEAN’S TOURISM III. THE DATA AND THE GRAVITY MODEL OF TOURISM A. The Gravity Model B. The Data IV. MEASURING THE IMPACT OF US-CUBA TOURISM ON THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN A. Estimating US-Cuba tourism flows V. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS VI. REFERENCES VII. APPENDIX FIGURES Caribbean Tourist Arrivals, 1995–2014 Evolution of the Caribbean Tourism Market, 1995–2014 Canadian