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Ruchir Agarwal and Patrick Gaulé

become a Fields medalist is fifty times larger than the corresponding probability for a PhD graduate from a top 10 mathematics program. We then investigate whether success in the IMO might have a causal effect on subsequent achievements in mathematics. To do so, we exploit the fact that IMO medals are an important summary of IMO performance, and are allocated solely based on the number of points scored at the IMO. We implement a regression discontinuity research design comparing those who nearly made a medal threshold versus those who nearly missed them. We find no