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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

, of 5.4 and 5.8 percent growth respectively driven by a rebound in the services sector (assuming % and nearly full recovery of tourist arrivals in 2021, and 2022 respectively), and investment which will be bolstered by large EU investment grants over the medium-term. Over the medium term, growth is projected to ease closer to 3 percent. Inflation is projected to pick up and stay at 2 percent through 2023, in line with the ECB inflation target. There are large risks on both sides, including from virus mutations in the near-term which could result in significant