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Ms. Hali J Edison and Mr. Francis Vitek

I. I ntroduction An integral part of the Fund’s mandate is the close monitoring and careful evaluation of the exchange rates of its members. As a result, the Fund has developed a framework for assessing exchange rates. As part of this mandate, the IMF Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) has developed models and provided assessments for a number of advanced and emerging market economies with the aim to inform country-specific surveillance. 1 Australia and New Zealand are both small commodity-exporting economies with reasonably long histories

Ms. Yan M Sun

I. I ntroduction This paper assesses the impact of the global financial crisis on potential growth of Australia and New Zealand over the medium term . It uses a simple production function framework to analyze key factors underlying potential growth in the last 25 years and explore possible developments in the next few years. The global crisis has not hit Australia and New Zealand as hard as many other advanced economies, although New Zealand’s economic performance has been less remarkable than Australia’s. Nevertheless, as Australia and New Zealand have

Mr. Benjamin L Hunt

in Australia and New Zealand over the 1995 to 2004 period can be explained by the second theory, unbalanced growth. The simulation analysis suggests that faster productivity growth in the tradable goods sector in New Zealand, Australia, and their major trading partners, accounts for a large portion of the relative decline in tradable goods production. Simulating GEM over a ten-year period incorporating the productivity gap between the tradable and nontradable sectors seen between 1995 and 2004 results in a decline in tradable goods production in New Zealand of

Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister, Mr. Harald Finger, Siddharth Kothari, and Ms. Elena Loukoianova

I. Introduction There is growing recognition that the COVID-19 pandemic may have long-lasting negative effects on the economy . The COVID-19 pandemic has exacted a heavy human toll and triggered the worst global recession since the Great Depression. While a near-term recovery supported by reopening of the economy following lockdowns has set in, this recovery may turn out to be drawn-out and partial given the pandemic’s longer-term economic impact through scarring. 2 Focusing on Australia and New Zealand as examples among advanced economies, this paper

Ms. Yan M Sun

I. I ntroduction The last decade has witnessed fast growing links between Australia and New Zealand and their emerging Asia neighbors. Robust demand for commodities from emerging Asia has helped boost commodity prices, sending Australia’s terms of trade to record highs. A glimpse of the two countries’ direction of trade statistics also reveals that emerging Asia has become a top market of their exports dominated by commodities during the last decade. At the same time, emerging Asia has supplied about half of Australia’s imports and 40 percent of New

Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone

component) of output to depend on the state of the economy. The main conclusion is that there is some evidence that the decline in inflation variance has not been accompanied by an increase in output variance, with the possible exception of Canada. Either output variance in the 1990s has not changed (i.e., Korea and Singapore) or has fallen (i.e., in Australia and New Zealand). Next section discusses some methodological issues and the models of output behavior estimated. Section III describes the data used and discusses the results of the estimations. Section IV

Mr. Adriaan M. Bloem

, operating surplus. In four cases both changes in inventories and operating surplus are derived as a residual; this suggests a strong reliance on the production method. Five countries—the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—face discrepancies between different quarterly GDP estimates. The other OECD countries have only one independent quarterly estimate, usually from the production approach. The main reason why these other countries do not have discrepancies is that components of the other approach or approaches are derived as a residual. Another reason may

Mr. Kenneth Rogoff and Mr. Yu-chin Chen

that if one could find a real shock that were sufficiently volatile, one could potentially go a long ways towards resolving these major empirical exchange rate puzzles. For most OECD economies, however, it is hard to know what that shock might be, much less measure it. 4 In this paper, we focus on three OECD economies where a potential dominant real shock may be identified, and explore how controlling for this real shock may help shed light on empirical exchange rate puzzles. In Canada, Australia and New Zealand, because primary commodities constitute a

International Monetary Fund

This paper examines the growth experience of seven developing island economies of the South Pacific--Fiji, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Western Samoa--and their developed neighbors, Australia and New Zealand, during the period 1971-93. The Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model provides the analytical framework for this study, and the implications of this model are tested using both the cross-sectional and time-series dimensions of the data. The econometric technique employed in the paper is Chamberlain’s Π-matrix estimator

Ms. Yan M Sun

Front Matter Page Asia and Pacific Department Authorized for distribution by Ray Brooks Contents I. Introduction II. Impact of the Crisis on Capital, Labor, and Productivity A. Investment and Capital B. Labor C. Productivity D. Projections for Potential Growth Box 1. Higher Cost of Capital Figure 1. Australia and New Zealand: Labor and Productivity Growth Tables 1. New Zealand: Path for Potential Output Growth Components 2. Australia: Path for Potential Output Growth Components 3. Elements of Australia and New Zealand