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Patrick Blagrave
Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks—a result which the paper terms the ‘monsoon effect.’ Economies with higher trade integration and co-movement in nominal effective exchange rates also experience greater food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, cross-country co-movement in core inflation is weak and the aforementioned determinants have little explanatory power, suggesting a prominent role for idiosyncratic domestic factors in driving core inflation. In the context of the growing literature on the globalization of inflation, these results suggest that common weather patterns are partly responsible for any role played by a so-called ‘global factor’ among inflation rates in emerging and developing economies, in Asia at least.
Patrick Blagrave

inflation co-movement and trade integration 3. Relationship between core inflation co-movement and trade integration 4. Relationship between food inflation co-movement and rainfall co-movement Tables 1. Food inflation co-movement regressions 2. Core inflation co-movement regressions 3. Food inflation co-movement, robustness checks 4. Core inflation co-movement, robustness checks References Appendix

Patrick Blagrave

generally have relatively stable trade relationships over time, and so it is impossible to distinguish between (time invariant) country-pair fixed effects and their degree of trade integration. Table 1. Food inflation co-movement regressions (1) (2) (3) QC FOOD (3mma) QC RAIN DEV 0.118*** (0.042) 0.106** (0.042) 0.096* (0.048) TRADE 0.249*** (0.075) 0.256*** (0.072) -0.825 (0.971) QC NEER 0.050*** (0.014) 0.055*** (0.017) 0.046*** (0.017) QC M2 0.002 (0.015) 0.003 (0.014) 0.006 (0