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Victor Duarte Lledo
This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyze the macroeconomic and redistributive effects of replacing turnover and financial transaction taxes in Brazil by a consumption tax. In order to approximate Brazil's compliance with its fiscal adjustment targets, the proposed reform is subject to a non increasing path for the level of public debt. Despite an increase in the average consumption tax rate in the first years after the reform, a majority of individuals experienced an increase in their lifetime welfare. This result rejects the hypothesis that the on-going fiscal adjustment effort carried on by the Brazilian government was an obstacle to the implementation of a more efficient tax system.
Victor Duarte Lledo

This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyze the macroeconomic and redistributive effects of replacing turnover and financial transaction taxes in Brazil by a consumption tax. In order to approximate Brazil's compliance with its fiscal adjustment targets, the proposed reform is subject to a non increasing path for the level of public debt. Despite an increase in the average consumption tax rate in the first years after the reform, a majority of individuals experienced an increase in their lifetime welfare. This result rejects the hypothesis that the on-going fiscal adjustment effort carried on by the Brazilian government was an obstacle to the implementation of a more efficient tax system.

Victor Duarte Lledo
Ananya Kotia and Victor Duarte Lledo
This paper studies how fiscal rules interact with the intergovernmental fiscal framework to foster fiscal discipline among European subnational governments. We use political variables describing the fiscal attitudes of the central government as instruments to obtain consistent estimates of the impact of subnational fiscal rules on fiscal balances. The results suggest that the discipline-enhancing effect of fiscal rules is weaker when there are large “vertical fiscal imbalances” that is, large differences in revenue and spending assignments across the different levels of government. These findings imply that separate reforms to reduce excessive vertical fiscal imbalances complement a rules-based fiscal framework that is aimed at fostering fiscal discipline.
Ananya Kotia and Victor Duarte Lledo
Ananya Kotia and Victor Duarte Lledo

This paper studies how fiscal rules interact with the intergovernmental fiscal framework to foster fiscal discipline among European subnational governments. We use political variables describing the fiscal attitudes of the central government as instruments to obtain consistent estimates of the impact of subnational fiscal rules on fiscal balances. The results suggest that the discipline-enhancing effect of fiscal rules is weaker when there are large “vertical fiscal imbalances” that is, large differences in revenue and spending assignments across the different levels of government. These findings imply that separate reforms to reduce excessive vertical fiscal imbalances complement a rules-based fiscal framework that is aimed at fostering fiscal discipline.

Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Roberto Perrelli
This paper uses a novel macroeconomic framework to identify policy and financing options to help Rwanda achieve its sustainable development goals (SDGs). Under current policies, Rwanda would meet its SDGs right after 2050. Active policies that combine fiscal reforms and higher private sector participation could fulfill more than one third of Rwanda’s post-pandemic SDG financing gap, enabling the country to meet its SDG targets by 2040. For Rwanda to meet its SDGs by 2030, active policies would need to be complemented with about 13¾ percentage points of GDP in additional resources annually until then.
Irene Yackovlev, Victor Duarte Lledo, and Lucie Gadenne
This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, seem to be important factors in diminishing procyclicality in the region. The role of institutions is less clear cut: changes in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality.
Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
This paper investigates economic, political, and institutional constraints to fiscal policy implementation in sub-saharan Africa. We find that planned fiscal adjustments or expansions are less likely to be implemented the larger they are, the more inaccurate the growth forecasts they are based on, the more fragile the regulatory system in the country, and the weaker the institutions framing the design, approval, and execution of the budget. The findings support ongoing efforts in the region to improve the quality and timeliness of economic data; enhance forecasting capacity; adopt realistic fiscal plans; and strengthen governance, budgetary institutions, and public financial management procedures.
Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Roberto Perrelli