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Ms. Kimberly Beaton

Abstract

This chapter is based on work by K. Beaton, S. Cerovic, M. Gladamez, M. Hadzi-Vaskov, F. Loyola, Z. Koczan, B. Lissovolik, J.K. Martijn, Y. Ustyuogova, and J. Wong. For further details, see Beaton and others (2017).

Ms. Kimberly Beaton

Abstract

The authors would like to thank Valerie Cerra for her guidance with this work. This chapter is based on IMF (2017) with the analysis updated and extended to CAPDR.

Ms. Kimberly Beaton

Abstract

Financial stability is key to inclusive and sustained growth. Financial crises frequently result in large output and wealth losses, and they tend to affect people in middle- and lower-middle classes harder than the wealthy, sapping broad-based economic growth. Without remedies against the often severe consequences of financial crises, prevention is better than cures that deal with their impact after the event. To mitigate the financial stability risks that emanate from financial institutions, countries have traditionally relied on prudential regulations and more recently on risk-based supervision to buffer financial shocks. However, risks to systemic stability can also stem from real sector shocks. As seen during the global financial crisis of 2008, cross-border and cross-sector spillovers can intensify both.

Majid Bazarbash and Ms. Kimberly Beaton
Can fintech credit fill the credit gap in the consumer and business segments? There are few cross-country studies that explore this question. Focusing on marketplace lending, an important part of fintech credit, we use data for 109 countries from 2015 to 2017 to study the relationship between fintech credit to businesses and consumers and various aspects of financial development. Marketplace lending to consumers grows in countries where financial depth declines highlighting the role of fintech credit in filling the credit gap by traditional lenders. This result is particularly strong in low-income countries. In the business segment, marketplace lending expands where financial efficiency declines. Our findings show that low-income countries take advantage of the fintech credit opportunity in the consumer segment but face important challenges in the business segment.
Majid Bazarbash and Ms. Kimberly Beaton

Can fintech credit fill the credit gap in the consumer and business segments? There are few cross-country studies that explore this question. Focusing on marketplace lending, an important part of fintech credit, we use data for 109 countries from 2015 to 2017 to study the relationship between fintech credit to businesses and consumers and various aspects of financial development. Marketplace lending to consumers grows in countries where financial depth declines highlighting the role of fintech credit in filling the credit gap by traditional lenders. This result is particularly strong in low-income countries. In the business segment, marketplace lending expands where financial efficiency declines. Our findings show that low-income countries take advantage of the fintech credit opportunity in the consumer segment but face important challenges in the business segment.

Ms. Kimberly Beaton, Aliona Cebotari, and Andras Komaromi
We revisit the relationship between international trade, economic growth and inequality with a focus on Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper combines two approaches: First, we employ a cross-country panel framework to analyze the macroeconomic effects of international trade on economic growth and inequality considering the strength of trade connections as well as characteristics of countries’ export markets and products. Second, we consider event studies of past episodes of trade liberalization to extract general lessons on the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth and its structure and inequality. Both approaches consistently point to two broad messages: First, trade openness and connectivity to the center of the trade network has substantial macroeconomic benefits. Second, we do not find a statistically significant or economically sizable direct impact of trade on overall income inequality.
Ms. Kimberly Beaton, Aliona Cebotari, and Andras Komaromi
Ms. Kimberly Beaton, Aliona Cebotari, and Andras Komaromi

We revisit the relationship between international trade, economic growth and inequality with a focus on Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper combines two approaches: First, we employ a cross-country panel framework to analyze the macroeconomic effects of international trade on economic growth and inequality considering the strength of trade connections as well as characteristics of countries’ export markets and products. Second, we consider event studies of past episodes of trade liberalization to extract general lessons on the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth and its structure and inequality. Both approaches consistently point to two broad messages: First, trade openness and connectivity to the center of the trade network has substantial macroeconomic benefits. Second, we do not find a statistically significant or economically sizable direct impact of trade on overall income inequality.

Ms. Kimberly Beaton and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
This paper estimates medium-term potential growth for a country undergoing significant structural and secular changes. Our forward-looking framework, incorporating three analytical approaches for examining economic prospects, constitutes an important complement to typical backward-looking methods that filter or extrapolate historical data. In particular, the opening of the expanded Panama Canal in 2016 highlights significant structural changes underway in the Panamanian economy. We first analyze growth determinants and find that Panama is well-placed to maintain its business model, with improvements in education and governance important to support growth. Second, the current pipeline of investment projects can help sustain investment-led growth, although at a more moderate pace. Third, further development of the logistics and tourism sectors holds promise to further build on Panama’s comparative advantage.