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Ms. Alla Myrvoda

Abstract

Pension funds are becoming increasingly important in financial markets in the LA-7 (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay). The size of these pension funds has surpassed 17 percent of GDP in assets under management, largely driven by growing participation following legal changes in most of the region. Brazil dominates LA-7 pension fund assets in value terms, while the Chilean pension fund industry—whose framework has often been used as a model in the region—remains the largest in relation to the country’s size. Despite the rapid growth, total assets and participation rates within the LA-7 remain below those of advanced country averages, thus strengthening expectations that LA-7 pension fund growth will continue to outstrip that of regional GDP. Countries’ regulatory frameworks restrict most pension funds to largely domestic investments, although in many cases Latin American pension funds have outgrown domestic capital markets.

Ms. Alla Myrvoda and Julien Reynaud
This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.
Ms. Alla Myrvoda and Julien Reynaud

This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.

Ms. Alla Myrvoda and Julien Reynaud
Ms. Alla Myrvoda and Mr. Bennett W Sutton

Abstract

In the countries that make up the LA-7 (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay), insurance penetration (measured by premiums in percent of GDP) remains low, ranging from 1 to 4 percentage points of GDP, although the sector has expanded at a significant rate over the past decade. In 2014, assets totaled almost 10 percent of regional GDP, influenced in many cases by changes in the domestic regulatory frameworks. Broadening of formal sectors and larger nominal losses from natural disasters are likely to fuel the non-life segment, whereas purchases of life and retirement products have been growing the life portion of the insurance sector for some time now. The sector’s growth is partly stymied by the limited availability of long-term financial instruments denominated in the domestic currency, given that their demand is often crowded out by pension funds.

Ms. Alla Myrvoda and Mr. Bennett W Sutton

Abstract

Market capitalizations in the LA-7 (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay) are moderate in size by emerging market standards; however, continued growth and development will depend on improving liquidity conditions across the region. At the end of 2015, capitalization of LA-7 equity markets was 32 percent of regional GDP, while the value of domestically traded bonds outstanding was about 62 percent of GDP (Figure 6.1). In dollar terms, the largest bond and equity markets are in Brazil and Mexico. Despite solid market capitalizations, low trading volumes are a growing concern. Shrinking liquidity is attributed to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, high transaction costs, and the outsized role of institutional investors and their buy-and-hold strategies.

Mr. Ashvin Ahuja and Ms. Alla Myrvoda

Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock.

Mr. Ashvin Ahuja and Ms. Alla Myrvoda
Mr. Ashvin Ahuja and Ms. Alla Myrvoda
Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock.
Ms. Kimberly Beaton, Ms. Alla Myrvoda, and Shernnel Thompson
This paper assesses the determinants of NPLs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and whether a deterioration in asset quality may result in negative feedback effects from the banking system to economic activity. The results suggest that the deterioration in asset quality can be attributed to both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Banks with stronger profitability and lower exposure to the construction sector and household loans tend to have lower NPLs. Further, some evidence indicates that foreign owned banks systematically have lower NPLs than domestic banks, pointing to the presence of important differences across bank practices with an impact on asset quality. Finally, the results emphasize the strength of macrofinancial feedback loops in the ECCU.