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Mr. Tobias Adrian and Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
This paper marks the launch of a new IMF series, Fintech Notes. Building on years of IMF staff work, it will explore pressing topics in the digital economy and be issued periodically. The series will carry work by IMF staff and will seek to provide insight into the intersection of technology and the global economy. The Rise of Digital Money analyses how technology companies are stepping up competition to large banks and credit card companies. Digital forms of money are increasingly in the wallets of consumers as well as in the minds of policymakers. Cash and bank deposits are battling with so-called e-money, electronically stored monetary value denominated in, and pegged to, a currency like the euro or the dollar. This paper identifies the benefits and risks and highlights regulatory issues that are likely to emerge with a broader adoption of stablecoins. The paper also highlights the risks associated with e-money: potential creation of new monopolies; threats to weaker currencies; concerns about consumer protection and financial stability; and the risk of fostering illegal activities, among others.
Mr. Tobias Adrian and Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

This paper marks the launch of a new IMF series, Fintech Notes. Building on years of IMF staff work, it will explore pressing topics in the digital economy and be issued periodically. The series will carry work by IMF staff and will seek to provide insight into the intersection of technology and the global economy. The Rise of Digital Money analyses how technology companies are stepping up competition to large banks and credit card companies. Digital forms of money are increasingly in the wallets of consumers as well as in the minds of policymakers. Cash and bank deposits are battling with so-called e-money, electronically stored monetary value denominated in, and pegged to, a currency like the euro or the dollar. This paper identifies the benefits and risks and highlights regulatory issues that are likely to emerge with a broader adoption of stablecoins. The paper also highlights the risks associated with e-money: potential creation of new monopolies; threats to weaker currencies; concerns about consumer protection and financial stability; and the risk of fostering illegal activities, among others.

Mr. Jiaqian Chen, Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, and Ms. Ratna Sahay
The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies—dubbed spillovers—is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance). In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.
Mr. Jiaqian Chen, Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, and Ms. Ratna Sahay

The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies—dubbed spillovers—is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance). In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.

Mr. Jiaqian Chen, Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, and Ms. Ratna Sahay
Stephen Cecchetti, Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, and Mr. Machiko Narita
Using firm-level data for approximately 1,000 bank and nonbank financial institutions in 22 countries over the past 15 years we study the impact of prolonged monetary policy easing on risk-taking behavior. We find that the leverage ratio, as well as other measures of firm-level vulnerability, increases for banks and nonbanks as domestic monetary policy easing persists. Cross-border effects are also notable. We find effects of roughly similar magnitude on foreign financial sector firms when the U.S. eases policy. Results appear robust to a variety of specifications, and to be non-linear, with risk-taking behavior rising most quickly at the onset of monetary policy easing.
Stephen Cecchetti, Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, and Mr. Machiko Narita
Usando datos a nivel de empresa correspondientes a aproximadamente 1.000 bancos e instituciones financieras no bancarias en 22 países en los últimos 15 años, estudiamos el impacto de la aplicación prolongada de una política monetaria expansiva en la conducta relacionada con la toma de riesgos. Observamos que el coeficiente de endeudamiento, así como otros indicadores de la vulnerabilidad a nivel de las empresas, aumenta para para los bancos y las entidades no bancarias internas mientras persiste la política monetaria expansiva en el país. Los efectos transfronterizos también son notables. Observamos efectos de magnitud más o menos similar en empresas extranjeras del sector financiero cuando Estados Unidos adopta una política menos restrictiva. Los resultados parecen ser robustos frente a una variedad de especificaciones, y parecen ser no lineales, y se observa que el comportamiento de toma de riesgos aumenta más rápidamente cuando empieza a aplicarse la política de expansión monetaria.
Stephen Cecchetti, Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, and Mr. Machiko Narita