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Mr. Todd D. Mattina
This paper outlines the challenge of developing an operational macroeconomic framework in Ethiopia consistent with the large envisaged scaling up of aid to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This paper describes an MDG scenario that addresses both microeconomic and macroeconomic constraints, such as the need to boost sustainable growth, limit Dutch disease, formulate an exit strategy from aid dependency, enhance public financial management (PFM), and expand the supply of skilled labor. The paper will argue that a carefully sequenced MDG strategy is essential so that the scaled-up aid and public spending will remain in line with Ethiopia's absorptive capacity.
Mr. Todd D. Mattina

This paper outlines the challenge of developing an operational macroeconomic framework in Ethiopia consistent with the large envisaged scaling up of aid to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This paper describes an MDG scenario that addresses both microeconomic and macroeconomic constraints, such as the need to boost sustainable growth, limit Dutch disease, formulate an exit strategy from aid dependency, enhance public financial management (PFM), and expand the supply of skilled labor. The paper will argue that a carefully sequenced MDG strategy is essential so that the scaled-up aid and public spending will remain in line with Ethiopia's absorptive capacity.

Mr. Todd D. Mattina and Ms. Victoria Gunnarsson
This paper assesses the relative efficiency and flexibility of public spending in Slovenia compared to the advanced and new EU member states. Spending on health care, education, and social protection is relatively high in Slovenia without achieving correspondingly better outcomes. Inefficiencies appear to stem from the financing mechanisms for social services, institutional arrangements, and the weak targeting of social benefits. In addition, the composition of spending appears to be strongly tilted towards nondiscretionary items that reduce the fiscal room for maneuver. Greater flexibility is needed to facilitate the reallocation of relatively inefficient expenditure into higher priorities. In this manner, medium-term expenditure rationalization can focus on reducing inefficient outlays rather than restraining traditionally flexible components of the budget, such as public investment.
Mr. Todd D. Mattina and Ms. Victoria Gunnarsson

This paper assesses the relative efficiency and flexibility of public spending in Slovenia compared to the advanced and new EU member states. Spending on health care, education, and social protection is relatively high in Slovenia without achieving correspondingly better outcomes. Inefficiencies appear to stem from the financing mechanisms for social services, institutional arrangements, and the weak targeting of social benefits. In addition, the composition of spending appears to be strongly tilted towards nondiscretionary items that reduce the fiscal room for maneuver. Greater flexibility is needed to facilitate the reallocation of relatively inefficient expenditure into higher priorities. In this manner, medium-term expenditure rationalization can focus on reducing inefficient outlays rather than restraining traditionally flexible components of the budget, such as public investment.

Mr. Todd D. Mattina and Ms. Victoria Gunnarsson
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba, Mr. Todd D. Mattina, and Agustin Roitman
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba, Mr. Todd D. Mattina, and Agustin Roitman
We study whether multiyear fiscal adjustment plans in 17 OECD countries during 1980-2011 have been associated with market pressure. We find that only a third (34 percent) of the consolidations occurred under market pressure, suggesting that market pressure is important but not the main element associated with consolidation plans. Many adjustments under market pressure were also clustered around external shocks, and entailed larger median fiscal adjustments than other multiyear consolidations. In contrast, we find that virtually all multiyear consolidations aimed at reducing budget deficits occurred with initially weak macro-fiscal fundamentals.
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba, Mr. Todd D. Mattina, and Agustin Roitman

We study whether multiyear fiscal adjustment plans in 17 OECD countries during 1980-2011 have been associated with market pressure. We find that only a third (34 percent) of the consolidations occurred under market pressure, suggesting that market pressure is important but not the main element associated with consolidation plans. Many adjustments under market pressure were also clustered around external shocks, and entailed larger median fiscal adjustments than other multiyear consolidations. In contrast, we find that virtually all multiyear consolidations aimed at reducing budget deficits occurred with initially weak macro-fiscal fundamentals.

Philip Daniel, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Todd D. Mattina, and Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.