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Mr. Nicolas E Magud

Abstract

How has Latin America coped with external shocks and economic vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the global financial crisis? Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America looks at how the region has fared in recent years in an environment of uncertainty. It presents a collection of novel contributions on capital flows, terms of trade, and macroeconomic policy in Latin America. The rigorous expert analysis offers an up-to-date guide to many of the key economic policy questions in the region. Chapters focus on important analytical issues, including assessing reserves adequacy and current account levels. The roles of macroeconomic policies and exchange rates regimes in coping with large capital inflows are examined, as well as the effectiveness of both monetary policy and fiscal policy in dealing with economic challenges in the region.

Mr. Nicolas E Magud

Abstract

How has Latin America coped with external shocks and economic vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the global financial crisis? Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America looks at how the region has fared in recent years in an environment of uncertainty. It presents a collection of novel contributions on capital flows, terms of trade, and macroeconomic policy in Latin America. The rigorous expert analysis offers an up-to-date guide to many of the key economic policy questions in the region. Chapters focus on important analytical issues, including assessing reserves adequacy and current account levels. The roles of macroeconomic policies and exchange rates regimes in coping with large capital inflows are examined, as well as the effectiveness of both monetary policy and fiscal policy in dealing with economic challenges in the region.

Mr. Mario Catalan and Mr. Nicolas E Magud
We compare the long-term output and current account effects of pension reforms that increase the retirement age with those of reforms that cut pension benefits, conditional on reforms achieving similar fiscal targets. We show the presence of a policy trade-off. Pension reforms that increase the retirement age have a large positive effect on output, but a small (and often negative) effect on the current account. In contrast, reforms that cut pension benefits improve the current account balance but reduce output. Mixed pension reforms, which extend the working life and cut pension benefits, can simultaneously boost output and the current account.
Mr. Mario Catalan and Mr. Nicolas E Magud
Mr. Mario Catalan and Mr. Nicolas E Magud

We compare the long-term output and current account effects of pension reforms that increase the retirement age with those of reforms that cut pension benefits, conditional on reforms achieving similar fiscal targets. We show the presence of a policy trade-off. Pension reforms that increase the retirement age have a large positive effect on output, but a small (and often negative) effect on the current account. In contrast, reforms that cut pension benefits improve the current account balance but reduce output. Mixed pension reforms, which extend the working life and cut pension benefits, can simultaneously boost output and the current account.

Mr. Nicolas E Magud and Mr. Esteban Vesperoni

We document the behavior of macro and credit variables during episodes of capital inflows reversals in economies with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We find that exchange rate flexibility is associated with milder credit growth during the boom but, even though smaller than in more rigid regimes, it cannot shield the economy from a credit reversal. Furthermore, we observe what we dub as a recovery puzzle: credit growth in economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes remains tepid well after the capital flow reversal takes place. This results stress the complementarity of macro-prudential policies with the exchange rate regime. More flexible regimes could help smoothing the credit cycle through capital surchages and dynamic provisioning that build buffers to counteract the credit recovery puzzle. In contrast, more rigid exchange rate regimes would benefit the most from measures to contain excessive credit growth during booms, such as reserve requirements, loan-to-income ratios, and debt-to-income and debt-service-to-income limits.

Mr. Nicolas E Magud and Mr. Esteban Vesperoni
We document the behavior of macro and credit variables during episodes of capital inflows reversals in economies with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We find that exchange rate flexibility is associated with milder credit growth during the boom but, even though smaller than in more rigid regimes, it cannot shield the economy from a credit reversal. Furthermore, we observe what we dub as a recovery puzzle: credit growth in economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes remains tepid well after the capital flow reversal takes place. This results stress the complementarity of macro-prudential policies with the exchange rate regime. More flexible regimes could help smoothing the credit cycle through capital surchages and dynamic provisioning that build buffers to counteract the credit recovery puzzle. In contrast, more rigid exchange rate regimes would benefit the most from measures to contain excessive credit growth during booms, such as reserve requirements, loan-to-income ratios, and debt-to-income and debt-service-to-income limits.
Mr. Nicolas E Magud and Mr. Esteban Vesperoni
Mr. Nicolas E Magud and Mr. Sebastian Sosa
We document that (i) although private investment growth in emerging markets has decelerated in recent years, it came down from cyclical highs and remains close to pre-crisis trends; and (ii) investment-to-output ratios generally remain close to or above historical averages. We show that investment is positively related to expect future profitability, cash flows and debt flows, and negatively associated with leverage. Critically, it is also positively related to (country-specific) commodity export prices and capital inflows. Lower commodity export prices and expected profitability, a moderation in capital inflows, and increased leverage account for the bulk of the recent investment deceleration.
Mr. Nicolas E Magud and Mr. Sebastian Sosa