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  • Author or Editor: Mr. Mico Mrkaic x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Data Dissemination Standards and the Statistical Quality of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Forecasts
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
This paper analyzes the effects of IMF member countries participation in the IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) on the statistical quality of WEO forecasts. Results show that WEO forecasts for SDDS subscribers are in general better than for GDDS participants and those member countries than do not participate in the DSIs. Policy implications are that the DSI positively affect the statistical quality of forecasts and by extension improve the necessary conditions for multilateral surveillance and the provision of member countries with high quality policy advice.
Keywords:
WP; right; forecast error; inflation rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Information Content of DQAF Indicators: Empirical Entropy Analysis
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
The study presents an analysis of the information content of IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) indicators. There are significant differences in the quantity of information between DQAF dimensions and sub-dimensions. The most informative DQAF dimension is accessibility, followed by the prerequisites of quality and accuracy and reliability. The least informative DQAF dimensions are serviceability and assurances of integrity. The implication of these findings is that the current DQAF indicators do not maximize the amount of information that could be obtained during data ROSC missions. An additional set of assessments that would refine the existing DQAF indicators would be beneficial in maximizing the information gathered during data ROSC mission. The entropy of DQAF indicators could also be used in the construction of a cardinal index of data quality.
Keywords:
WP; data set; information content
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
Keywords:
WP; right; forecast error; inflation rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
Keywords:
WP; data set; information content
Cover IMF Working Papers
Data Dissemination Standards and the Statistical Quality of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Forecasts1
Mr. Mico Mrkaic

This paper analyzes the effects of IMF member countries participation in the IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) on the statistical quality of WEO forecasts. Results show that WEO forecasts for SDDS subscribers are in general better than for GDDS participants and those member countries than do not participate in the DSIs. Policy implications are that the DSI positively affect the statistical quality of forecasts and by extension improve the necessary conditions for multilateral surveillance and the provision of member countries with high quality policy advice.

Keywords:
WP; right; forecast error; inflation rate; forecast real GDP error; period forecasting error; SDDS subscription; SDDS periodicity; summary statistics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Information Content of DQAF Indicators
Empirical Entropy Analysis
Mr. Mico Mrkaic

The study presents an analysis of the information content of IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) indicators. There are significant differences in the quantity of information between DQAF dimensions and sub-dimensions. The most informative DQAF dimension is accessibility, followed by the prerequisites of quality and accuracy and reliability. The least informative DQAF dimensions are serviceability and assurances of integrity. The implication of these findings is that the current DQAF indicators do not maximize the amount of information that could be obtained during data ROSC missions. An additional set of assessments that would refine the existing DQAF indicators would be beneficial in maximizing the information gathered during data ROSC mission. The entropy of DQAF indicators could also be used in the construction of a cardinal index of data quality.

Keywords:
WP; data set; information content; macroeconomic data; DQAF framework; data user; content of the DQAF
Cover IMF Working Papers
SMEs’ Access to Finance in the Euro Area: What Helps or Hampers?
Bahar Öztürk and Mr. Mico Mrkaic
The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area has been adversely affected by the recent crises. Using survey data on thousands of euro area firms, we study factors that affect the access to finance of SMEs. We find that changes in bank funding costs and borrower leverage matter for firms’ access to finance. Increases in bank funding costs and borrowers’ debt-to-asset ratios are significantly and negatively associated with firms’ access to finance. The use of subsidies significantly improve access to finance of SMEs. Finally, access to finance is found to be positively related to firm size and firm age.
Keywords:
WP; firm; firm size; access to finance; micro; small and medium sized enterprises; monetary policy; firms' access; micro firm; credit constraint; firm age; Bank credit; Credit; Financial statements; Credit default swap; Loans
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Bahar Öztürk and Mr. Mico Mrkaic
Keywords:
WP; firm; firm size
Cover IMF Working Papers
SMEs’ Access to Finance in the Euro Area
What Helps or Hampers?
Bahar Öztürk and Mr. Mico Mrkaic

The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area has been adversely affected by the recent crises. Using survey data on thousands of euro area firms, we study factors that affect the access to finance of SMEs. We find that changes in bank funding costs and borrower leverage matter for firms’ access to finance. Increases in bank funding costs and borrowers’ debt-to-asset ratios are significantly and negatively associated with firms’ access to finance. The use of subsidies significantly improve access to finance of SMEs. Finally, access to finance is found to be positively related to firm size and firm age.

Keywords:
WP; firm; firm size; CDS premium; firm level; constraints of firm; credit track record; transmission mechanism
Cover IMF Working Papers
License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports
Jelle Barkema, Mr. Mico Mrkaic, and Yuanchen Yang
This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.
Keywords:
spillover discussion; model performance; discussion of spillover; General spillover pattern; spillover event; IMF staff calculation; Spillovers; Probit models; Machine learning; Capital account; Inflation; Global