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Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
Do fiscal rules likely lead to fiscal adjustment, or do they encourage the use of ‘creative accounting’? This question is studied with a model in which fiscal rules are imposed on ‘measured’ fiscal variables, which can differ from ‘true’ variables because there is a margin for creative accounting. The probability of detecting creative accounting depends on its size and the transparency of the budget. The model studies the effects on fiscal policy of different rules, separating structural from cyclical effects, and examines how these effects depend on the underlying fiscal distortion and on the degree of transparency of the budget.
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
The corporate governance problem of state enterprises in former socialist economies can give rise to excessive wage claims and/or capital decumulation. This paper focuses on these problems, highlighting the dynamic links between wage behavior, the fiscal deficit, inflation and the capital stock. Wage controls have been widely advocated as a response to the corporate governance problem. We show that in the presence of excessive wage claims a system of wage controls can help to limit capital decumulation and reduce inflation, since wage moderation implies higher government revenues from the profit tax and therefore lower money creation. More specifically, it is shown that when wage levels are initially excessive a reduction in the degree of wage indexation is effective in lowering inflation if nominal wages do not provide, on average, full protection against future inflation.
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
The real effective exchange rate of the dollar is close to its minimum level for the past 4decades (as of September 2008). At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and currentaccount deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, wouldcontribute to a further accumulation of U.S. external liabilities. The paper discusses thetension between these two aspects of the dollar assessment, and what factors can helpreconcile them. It focuses in particular on the terms of trade, adjustment lags, andmeasurement issues related to both the real effective exchange rate and the current accountbalance.
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
This paper examines the rationale for the imposition of fiscal rules as a way to reduce budgetary imbalances. It presents theoretical arguments for the existence of a “fiscal deficit bias” and the empirical evidence on the economic, political and institutional factors leading to this bias. In the context of these findings, it discusses the potential role of legal constraints on the level of key fiscal variables, and of reforms in budgetary procedures in enhancing fiscal discipline. It also evaluates proposals for budgetary reform in Italy.
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti

Do fiscal rules likely lead to fiscal adjustment, or do they encourage the use of ‘creative accounting’? This question is studied with a model in which fiscal rules are imposed on ‘measured’ fiscal variables, which can differ from ‘true’ variables because there is a margin for creative accounting. The probability of detecting creative accounting depends on its size and the transparency of the budget. The model studies the effects on fiscal policy of different rules, separating structural from cyclical effects, and examines how these effects depend on the underlying fiscal distortion and on the degree of transparency of the budget.

Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti

The corporate governance problem of state enterprises in former socialist economies can give rise to excessive wage claims and/or capital decumulation. This paper focuses on these problems, highlighting the dynamic links between wage behavior, the fiscal deficit, inflation and the capital stock. Wage controls have been widely advocated as a response to the corporate governance problem. We show that in the presence of excessive wage claims a system of wage controls can help to limit capital decumulation and reduce inflation, since wage moderation implies higher government revenues from the profit tax and therefore lower money creation. More specifically, it is shown that when wage levels are initially excessive a reduction in the degree of wage indexation is effective in lowering inflation if nominal wages do not provide, on average, full protection against future inflation.