Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 190 items for

  • Author or Editor: Mr. Atish R. Ghosh x
Clear All Modify Search
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh

Abstract

As the Ukrainian economy goes beyond its stabilization phase and toward a comprehensive program of structural reform, articulating a full macroeconomic scenario for the medium term becomes increasingly important. Such a scenario is not an unconditional forecast of the most likely evolution of the economy over the coming years. Indeed, the medium-term scenario will be very much predicated upon a set of often difficult, if not painful, micro- and macroeconomic adjustment policies. Nor, given existing data constraints, is it possible to generate a true conditional forecast (together with associated standard errors). Rather, the medium-term scenario is intended to provide a simple macroeconomic “reality check” upon projections for economic targets such as output growth and inflation. For example, generating rapid economic growth would be relatively simple if the country were willing to undertake sufficient investment. But achieving such an investment rate might entail unacceptable declines in consumption, or an unsustainably large buildup of external debt. Thus the challenge in developing a medium-term scenario lies in choosing reasonable macroeconomic targets that can be attained under plausible assumptions about the private sector’s behavior and the government’s willingness to undertake the necessary policy measures.

Mr. Atish R. Ghosh

Abstract

As the Ukrainian economy goes beyond its stabilization phase and toward a comprehensive program of structural reform, articulating a full macroeconomic scenario for the medium term becomes increasingly important. Such a scenario is not an unconditional forecast of the most likely evolution of the economy over the coming years. Indeed, the medium-term scenario will be very much predicated upon a set of often difficult, if not painful, micro- and macroeconomic adjustment policies. Nor, given existing data constraints, is it possible to generate a true conditional forecast (together with associated standard errors). Rather, the medium-term scenario is intended to provide a simple macroeconomic “reality check” upon projections for economic targets such as output growth and inflation. For example, generating rapid economic growth would be relatively simple if the country were willing to undertake sufficient investment. But achieving such an investment rate might entail unacceptable declines in consumption, or an unsustainably large buildup of external debt. Thus the challenge in developing a medium-term scenario lies in choosing reasonable macroeconomic targets that can be attained under plausible assumptions about the private sector’s behavior and the government’s willingness to undertake the necessary policy measures.

Mr. Atish R. Ghosh

The June 2008 issue tackles the crisis in financial markets in industrial countries from a number of angles. Articles look at the origins of the crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the United States and track its spillover into other markets. Then authors examine what can be done to prevent future crises. Other articles look at bank capital adequacy rules and Basel II, whether emerging markets and industrial economies are decoupling or converging, capital flows to low-income countries, efforts to achieve the MDGs, and currency intervention. Back to Basics looks at over-the-counter (OTC) markets and the People in Economics column profiles Jacques Polak. Picture This is on the digital divide.

Mr. Atish R. Ghosh

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.

Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
The growing integration of world capital markets has made it fashionable to argue that only extreme exchange rate regimes are sustainable. Short of adopting a common currency, currency board arrangements represent the most extreme form of exchange rate peg. This paper compares the macroeconomic performance of countries with currency boards to those with other forms of pegged exchange rate regime. Currency boards are indeed associated with better inflation performance, even allowing for potential endogeneity of the choice of regime. Perhaps more surprisingly, this better inflation performance is accompanied by higher output growth.
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh

The growing integration of world capital markets has made it fashionable to argue that only extreme exchange rate regimes are sustainable. Short of adopting a common currency, currency board arrangements represent the most extreme form of exchange rate peg. This paper compares the macroeconomic performance of countries with currency boards to those with other forms of pegged exchange rate regime. Currency boards are indeed associated with better inflation performance, even allowing for potential endogeneity of the choice of regime. Perhaps more surprisingly, this better inflation performance is accompanied by higher output growth.