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Mr. Arvind Virmani

Abstract

The legacy of relations between India and China began to change in the 1980s, with the opening of both economies. As long as their relationship was seen through a geopolitical prism, it was easy for both countries to view it as a zero-sum game. With the shift in both countries from an import substitution to an export promotion strategy during the 1980s, the focus shifted gradually to economics. With the acceleration of globalization during the 1990s, the imperatives of global interdependence and an appreciation of the possibilities of mutual gain have also increased. This is particularly so in China, whose share of world trade is now about eight times that of India; they have similar shares of foreign direct investment (FDI) and capital flows. Starting in 2000 these developments led to the establishment of an India-China Joint Study Group (JSG) on accelerating bilateral economic cooperation, of which I was a member as Director and Chief Executive of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). ICRIER also did a number of background studies for JSG, covering goods and services. After the presentation of this report to the two governments, the two countries formed an agreement for economic cooperation when Premier Wen Jiabao visited India in April 2005. However, the following discussion has nothing to do with that group or the government; these are my personal views.

Mr. Arvind Virmani
The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history of the Indian growth acceleration following the reforms of the 1990s and its future prospects given the recent slowdown. It analysis the potential dangers and reasons for India’s growth slowdown and proposes policy reforms for sustaining fast growth.
Mr. Arvind Virmani

The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history of the Indian growth acceleration following the reforms of the 1990s and its future prospects given the recent slowdown. It analysis the potential dangers and reasons for India’s growth slowdown and proposes policy reforms for sustaining fast growth.

Mr. Arvind Virmani

The paper examines the principles on which a reform of a Quota based global economic institution like the IMF must be based, taking account of both the relative economic power of countries and the need for voice and representation of the poor countries. These principles are then used in the context of the global economic realities of the 21st century to examine the suitability of different variables in the IMF.s Quota formula. Based on this analysis a simple transparent formula is suggested, which will help increase the credibility and legitimacy of the IMF as a global macroeconomic and financial institution.

Mr. Arvind Virmani
The paper examines the principles on which a reform of a Quota based global economic institution like the IMF must be based, taking account of both the relative economic power of countries and the need for voice and representation of the poor countries. These principles are then used in the context of the global economic realities of the 21st century to examine the suitability of different variables in the IMF.s Quota formula. Based on this analysis a simple transparent formula is suggested, which will help increase the credibility and legitimacy of the IMF as a global macroeconomic and financial institution.
Mr. Arvind Virmani and Mr. Danish A Hashim

Most estimates of Indian manufacturing productivity find a slowdown in the 1990s. This has puzzled analysts, given that 1990s reforms were deeper and wider than the 1980s reforms that raised the growth rate of the Indian economy by 2 per cent points. This paper tests the hypothesis of the J curve of Productivity and Growth following major liberalization and finds it to be broadly supported by the data: Technological obsolescence, gradual adoption of new technology and learning by doing result in negative effects on measured productivity.

Mr. Arvind Virmani and Mr. Danish A Hashim
Most estimates of Indian manufacturing productivity find a slowdown in the 1990s. This has puzzled analysts, given that 1990s reforms were deeper and wider than the 1980s reforms that raised the growth rate of the Indian economy by 2 per cent points. This paper tests the hypothesis of the J curve of Productivity and Growth following major liberalization and finds it to be broadly supported by the data: Technological obsolescence, gradual adoption of new technology and learning by doing result in negative effects on measured productivity.