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Mr. Antonio David, Alexandre Nguyen-Duong, and Hoda Selim
Mr. Antonio David, Alexandre Nguyen-Duong, and Hoda Selim

This paper assesses the adequacy and effectiveness of the WAEMU fiscal framework along three pillars that have proven to effectively support fiscal discipline in monetary unions—common fiscal rules (including adequacy of numerical ceilings as well as elements of design and enforcement), shared public financial management systems, and coordination mechanisms for decentralized fiscal policies. We undertake a calibration of regional debt and fiscal deficit ceilings taking into account different macroeconomic tradeoffs and risks and conclude that numerical ceilings that prevailed before the suspension of the fiscal rules remain adequate and strike the right balance between growth and fiscal sustainability. The paper also proposes reform options to strengthen the WAEMU regional fiscal surveillance framework, with a view to more effectively supporting fiscal discipline.

Mr. Giovanni Melina, Hoda Selim, and Ms. Concha Verdugo Yepes

This paper argues that oil revenue management and public investment in Congo are vulnerable to corruption as a result of limited transparency and accountability. Corruption has potentially contributed to poor macro-fiscal outcomes. The paper acknowledges the authorities’ anti-corruption efforts made so far and proposes further critical reforms to reduce remaining vulnerabilities. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model results show that, depending on the reforms adopted, the potential additional growth can range between 0.8 to 1.8 percent per year over the next 10 years, and debt can decline by 2.25 to 3 percent of GDP per year over the same period. These results suggest that macrofiscal gains from anti-corruption reforms could be substantial even under conservative reform scenarios.

Mr. Giovanni Melina, Hoda Selim, and Ms. Concha Verdugo Yepes
Mr. Giovanni Melina, Hoda Selim, and Ms. Concha Verdugo Yepes
This paper argues that oil revenue management and public investment in Congo are vulnerable to corruption as a result of limited transparency and accountability. Corruption has potentially contributed to poor macro-fiscal outcomes. The paper acknowledges the authorities’ anti-corruption efforts made so far and proposes further critical reforms to reduce remaining vulnerabilities. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model results show that, depending on the reforms adopted, the potential additional growth can range between 0.8 to 1.8 percent per year over the next 10 years, and debt can decline by 2.25 to 3 percent of GDP per year over the same period. These results suggest that macrofiscal gains from anti-corruption reforms could be substantial even under conservative reform scenarios.
Mr. Antonio David, Alexandre Nguyen-Duong, and Hoda Selim
This paper assesses the adequacy and effectiveness of the WAEMU fiscal framework along three pillars that have proven to effectively support fiscal discipline in monetary unions—common fiscal rules (including adequacy of numerical ceilings as well as elements of design and enforcement), shared public financial management systems, and coordination mechanisms for decentralized fiscal policies. We undertake a calibration of regional debt and fiscal deficit ceilings taking into account different macroeconomic tradeoffs and risks and conclude that numerical ceilings that prevailed before the suspension of the fiscal rules remain adequate and strike the right balance between growth and fiscal sustainability. The paper also proposes reform options to strengthen the WAEMU regional fiscal surveillance framework, with a view to more effectively supporting fiscal discipline.
Mr. Giovanni Melina, Hoda Selim, and Ms. Concha Verdugo Yepes

Abstract

Notwithstanding the anticorruption efforts the authorities have made since 2017, this chapter argues that oil revenue management and public investment in Congo remain vulnerable to corruption as a result of insufficient transparency and accountability. Corruption in these sectors is potentially a significant factor of weak macro-fiscal outcomes. Nevertheless, macro-fiscal gains from anticorruption reforms are significant. Depending on how ambitious reforms are, the potential additional growth can range between 0.8 and 1.8 percentage points per year in the long term over the next 10 years. Furthermore, debt can decline by 2.25 to 3 percentage points of GDP per year over the same period. Oil sector governance reforms could target improving transparency in oil trading and strengthening oversight and accountability of Congo’s national oil company. These reforms would be supported by measures to enhance the framework for anti–money laundering. Measures to reform public investment management and efficiency would include increasing transparency of public investment execution, strengthening external controls, and restructuring the internal audit system.

Mr. Bruno Imbert, Hoda Selim, Ms. Gwenaelle Suc, and Qing Zhao
Mr. Bruno Imbert, Hoda Selim, Ms. Gwenaelle Suc, and Qing Zhao

This paper takes stock of unorthodox expenditure procedures in CEMAC and WAEMU countries and assesses their potential fiscal impact. “Unorthodox procedures” are defined as spending practices that bypass legal provisions governing public expenditure processes and circumvent regular controls or other budgetary rules, including those related to budget time limits, approved ceilings, or approved appropriations. The paper shows that despite PFM reforms, recourse to such procedures has persisted—resulting in the accumulation of arrears; inadequate fiscal reporting, including large stock-flow adjustments; and corruption vulnerabilities.

Mr. Bruno Imbert, Hoda Selim, Ms. Gwenaelle Suc, and Qing Zhao
This paper takes stock of unorthodox expenditure procedures in CEMAC and WAEMU countries and assesses their potential fiscal impact. “Unorthodox procedures” are defined as spending practices that bypass legal provisions governing public expenditure processes and circumvent regular controls or other budgetary rules, including those related to budget time limits, approved ceilings, or approved appropriations. The paper shows that despite PFM reforms, recourse to such procedures has persisted—resulting in the accumulation of arrears; inadequate fiscal reporting, including large stock-flow adjustments; and corruption vulnerabilities.