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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
In consultation with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) of Lao PDR, a virtual technical assistance (TA) mission supported by the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department (APD) was conducted during October 4–29, 2021, by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) and the Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT). This ongoing peripatetic capacity development mission was delivered virtually by the CDOT-based LTX with staggered remote meetings. The TA mainly worked with the Fiscal Policy and Law Department (FPLD) and the External Finance and Debt Management Department (EFDMD) on compilation of government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS) in line with international standards, as the agreed work plan with the authorities in the April/May 2021 TA mission.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on government finance statistics (GFS) covers the remote TA to the Ministry of Finance (MOF) during September 21–October 2 and December 14–18, 2020 and March 9–13 and April 19–23, 2021 (which was extended to May 2021). These peripatetic activities were conducted remotely due to the travel restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 situation. This report documents the main achievements from these activities. These activities were part of the GFS and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) project funded by the Government of Japan (JSA3) and implemented by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) and the IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT).
Mr. Robin Koepke and Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Myanmar’s near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. These developments have greatly amplified uncertainty and could heighten downside risks around the outlook. The IMF staff is closely monitoring the situation, including related policy responses from the authorities, and will continue to work on assessing its impact in the Myanmar economy. Although long-term prospects remain favorable, near-term growth is likely to remain below potential as the correction in real estate market and continued uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment in the runup to the 2020 elections. Starting FY2020/21, bank deleveraging will further slow credit and constrain gross domestic product growth as borrower’s true ability to repay is revealed with term loans coming due and banks restructure in earnest.