At the request of the General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, a technical assistance mission helped with the preparation of the next rebase of national accounts. The current base year 2010 needs to be updated to incorporate recent structural changes. A work plan was established to compile a new national accounts benchmark for 2020 and publish rebased estimates in March 2023. The mission focused on a better incorporation of non-observed activities as well as the development of supply and use tables and input-output tables for the new benchmark. This mission was funded by the IMF’s Data for Decisions project with the overall goal of putting more and better data in the hands of decision-makers.
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The Staff Operational Guidance on Dissemination of Capacity Development Information sets forth procedures on the dissemination of capacity development information, based on the objectives of wider, more active, and timelier sharing of information while safeguarding the Fund’s candor and role as trusted advisor. The guidance draws from internal consultations and Executive Directors’ views on the Updated Framework on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Kiribati’s recent economic performance has been strong. Growth is estimated to have reached 3.5 percent in 2015, supported by record-high fishing revenue, donor-financed infrastructure projects, and reconstruction in the aftermath of cyclone Pam. The fiscal position has improved markedly in recent years. High fishing revenue contributed to a recurrent fiscal balance of almost 50 percent of GDP in 2015, more than offsetting the increase in recurrent government spending of 13 percent. Growth is projected to moderate somewhat to about 3 percent in 2016, while inflation remains subdued owing to low food and commodity prices.
The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation on Guinea-Bissau highlights post-conflict challenges and recent economic developments. The conflict and ensuing political instability have taken a toll on growth and economic policies, and most macroeconomic indicators have worsened in the post-conflict period. The frequent changes in government have eroded international support. The recently appointed government has adopted an emergency program to address the main sources of fiscal slippages that have gained broad support both domestically and internationally, but significant donor support is still needed to fill the financing gap.
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic theory is ambiguous about the possible effects on the long-run growth rate of the economy. Using a dynamic panel data model, the hypotheses of no long-run effects of trade on income and on income growth are tested explicitly. The possibility of endogeneity is addressed by constructing an instrument for trade by extending Frankel and Romer's (1999) cross-sectional approach to the case of a panel data model. The empirical results indicate that trade has a large and significant effect on the level of income, but the effect on income growth is small and non-robust to model specification.
Ms. Ling H Tan, Ms. Kala Krishna, and Mr. Ram Ranjan
This paper models investment/entry decisions in a competitive industry that is subject to a quantity control on an input for production. The quantity control is implemented by auctioning licenses for the restricted input (e.g., a pollution permit or a production license). The paper shows that liberalizing the quantity control could reduce investment in the industry under certain circumstances. Furthermore, the level of investment is quite different when licenses are tradable than when they are not. Key factors in the comparison include the elasticity of demand for the final good and the degree of input substitutability. Two examples are computed to illustrate the results.
This paper examines dynamic patterns of investment in Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe, assessing the consistency of those patterns with different adjustment cost structures. Using survey data on manufactured firms, we document the importance of zero investment episodes and lumpy investment. The proportion of firms experiencing large investment spikes is significant in explaining aggregate manufacturing investment. Taken together, evidence from descriptive statistics, average investment regressions modeling the response to capital imbalance, and transition data analysis indicate that irreversibility is an important factor considered by firms when making investment plans. The picture is not unanimous however, and some explanations for the mixed results are proposed.