This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Botswana near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity, and financial markets. Gross domestic product growth is forecasted to pick up to 4.4 percent in 2020 and 5.6 percent in 2021 as the diamond industry recovers somewhat, and a new copper mine comes on stream. Growth will ease back to around 4 percent over the medium term. Risks to the outlook include faster-than-anticipated slowdown in key trading partners, shifts in consumer preferences to synthetic diamonds, and climate shocks. The size and pace of the planned adjustment are consistent with Botswana’s fiscal space, but the composition of the adjustment should protect efficient capital and social spending. Furthermore, given that buffers are being eroded, it is critical that consolidation starts as envisaged in FY2020, as it would help start addressing external imbalances and contribute to a gradual rebuilding of buffers over the medium term. In order to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism and deepen the domestic financial market, there is a need to develop the secondary market for government securities, leverage Fintech, facilitate the attachment of collateral, and improve credit information.
The paper presents an update on the status of the standard template to collect data on government revenues from natural resources, originally presented to the Executive Board in January 2014. The paper discusses: (i) the field-testing of the standard template in six countries, which confirmed the feasibility of applying it more broadly; (ii) the final version of the template based on outcomes of consultation with the international community and the field-testing visits; and (iii) the adoption of the template by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) International Secretariat as a mandatory reporting requirement for its member countries. The standard template serves as a companion to the Guide to Analyze Natural Resources in the National Accounts. The standard template was developed to support fiscal policy formulation and analysis in resource-rich economies, which constitute about one third of the Fund’s membership. The standard template is based on the revenue classification of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014, thereby facilitating the collection of resource revenue data in methodologically sound, analytically relevant, and cross-country comparable format.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Mongolia’s promising longer-term prospects given its abundant natural resources. In recent years, however, the economy has faced substantial challenges, as external shocks and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have compounded structural weaknesses. Mongolia remains heavily exposed to external shocks, given its export profile, and a key challenge will be to avoid the boom-bust cycles of the past. The discussions with authorities have focused on improving the fiscal framework and strengthening policy discipline, complemented by structural reforms to boost diversification and competitiveness and by efforts to strengthen and better target the social safety net.
This paper presents an overview of Botswana’s economy. Botswana’s diamond endowment—along with its track record of good macroeconomic policy management and political stability—contributed to high average economic growth and strong fiscal and balance-of-payments positions in recent years. Despite these achievements, Botswana faces unemployment, water and electricity shortages, and inefficiency of government operations. These challenges need to be addressed. Real GDP growth is estimated to be negative in 2015 owing to a decrease in global demand for diamonds and a deceleration of activity in the non-mining sector. However, the economy is expected to recover gradually in next three years driven by a gradual pick up in diamond prices and fiscal stimulus.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.
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This paper provides deeper insights on a few themes with regard to the experience with macroeconomic management in resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). First, some stylized facts on the performance of these economies relative to their non-resource peers are provided. Second, the experience of Fund engagement in these economies with respect to surveillance, programs, and technical assistance is assessed. Third, the experience of selected countries with good practices in the management of the natural resource wealth is presented. Fourth, the experience of IMF advice in helping RRDCs set up resource funds is discussed. Finally, the main themes and messages from the IMF staff consultation with external stakeholders (CSOs, policy makers, academics) are presented.
The major trends in terms of GDP growth rates, conditions of market forces, and the core inflation crisis in Botswana are analyzed in detail in the report. It has been suggested that although the recovery from the financial crisis of Botswana is the strongest compared with other middle-income countries, the overall results do not point toward a positive development in the economy. The need for authorities to take up certain measures and modify their methods of functioning is pivotal to Botswana's survival in the existing fragile economic environment.