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Hee Soo Kim, Carlos Chaverri, Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo, and Pedro Juarros
Central America is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events. The literature estimates the macroeconomic effects of climate events mainly using annual data, which might underestimate the true effects as these extreme events tend to be short-lived and generate government and family support in response. To overcome this limitation, this paper studies Central American countries’ macroeconomic impact of climatic disasters using high-frequency (monthly) data over the period 2000-2019. We identify extreme climate events by defining dummy variables related to storm and flood events reported in the EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database) and estimate country-specific VAR and panel VAR. The results suggest that a climatic disaster drops monthly economic activity in most countries in the region of around 0.5 to 1 percentage points on impact, with persistent effects on the level of GDP. We show that even as extreme climate events were relatively less severe under our sample period, quantitative effects are similar or larger than previously estimated for the region. In addition, remittances (transfers from family living abroad) increase for most countries in response to a extreme climate event, acting as a shock absorber. The results are robust to controlling for the severity of the climate events, for which we construct a monthly climate index measuring severity of weather indicators by following the spirit of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI).
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Stand-By Arrangement and an Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real output of Honduras in 2015 grew at 3.6 percent, slightly higher than projected. From the demand side, growth was supported by the recovery in private consumption—which responded positively to a reduction in gasoline prices and strong remittances inflows—and a boost in investment. On the supply side, the recovery in manufacturing and agriculture supported greater activity. The outlook for 2016 remains favorable. Real GDP through the second quarter of 2016 grew by 4.1 percent (year over year) broadly consistent with IMF staff projection of 3.6 percent for 2016. This projected growth performance is supported by scaled up public infrastructure investment and a supportive monetary policy stance.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This paper discusses Honduras' First Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and Standby Credit Facility (SCF). Program implementation for the first reviews has been strong. All 2014 performance criteria and indicative targets were met, most with significant margins. The authorities have also created fiscal space within the program to increase social spending and support efforts to reduce poverty. On the structural side, December 2014 and March 2015 benchmarks were also generally observed. The revised program proposed for 2015 envisages further strengthening fiscal and net international reserves targets. The IMF staff supports the completion of the first reviews under the SBA and the SCF Arrangements.

International Monetary Fund

Honduras’s Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes highlights Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Meeting General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations will also require disseminating production indices. To follow GDDS recommendations and facilitate eventual subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard, it would be important that key agencies move in the future with plans for improvement. To participate in the GDDS, the authorities would need to appoint a GDDS coordinator and commit to follow GDDS recommendations for selected data.

International Monetary Fund

Honduras’s Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes highlights Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Meeting General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations will also require disseminating production indices. To follow GDDS recommendations and facilitate eventual subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard, it would be important that key agencies move in the future with plans for improvement. To participate in the GDDS, the authorities would need to appoint a GDDS coordinator and commit to follow GDDS recommendations for selected data.

International Monetary Fund

Honduras’s Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes highlights Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Meeting General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations will also require disseminating production indices. To follow GDDS recommendations and facilitate eventual subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard, it would be important that key agencies move in the future with plans for improvement. To participate in the GDDS, the authorities would need to appoint a GDDS coordinator and commit to follow GDDS recommendations for selected data.

International Monetary Fund
Honduras’s Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes highlights Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Meeting General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations will also require disseminating production indices. To follow GDDS recommendations and facilitate eventual subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard, it would be important that key agencies move in the future with plans for improvement. To participate in the GDDS, the authorities would need to appoint a GDDS coordinator and commit to follow GDDS recommendations for selected data.