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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The fourth and last technical assistance (TA) mission for the benefit of Guinea, under the project on improving external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone countries of West and Central Africa, funded by the Japanese government and administered by the IMF, took place in Conakry during August 26–30, 2019. The mission was hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), which is the institution responsible for compiling the ESS. The main points addressed by the mission were to support (i) the process of participating in the coordinated direct investment survey (CDIS), (ii) the detailed technical work for improving the current and financial accounts, and (iii) the implementation of recommendations from previous missions.
Marco A Espinosa-Vega, Ms. Kazuko Shirono, Mr. Hector Carcel Villanova, Miss Esha Chhabra, Ms. Bidisha Das, and Ms. Yingjie Fan
This departmental paper marks the 10th anniversary of the IMF Financial Access Survey (FAS). It offers a retrospective of the FAS database, along with some reflections as to its future directions. Since its 2009 launch, the FAS has provided granular data on access to and use of financial services. It is a supply-side database with annual global coverage based on data sourced directly from financial service providers—aimed at supporting policymakers to target and evaluate financial inclusion policies. Its data collection has kept pace with financial innovation, such as the rise of mobile money and growing demand for gender-disaggregated data—and the FAS must continue to evolve.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for Staff Monitored Program. The economy is estimated to have rebounded in 2019 following the contraction triggered by the large earthquake in 2018. Inflation is projected to fall in 2019 but to pick up temporarily thereafter. The staff report reflects discussions with the PNG authorities in October 28–November 9, 2019 and is based on the information available as of November 21, 2019. It focuses on PNG near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before coronavirus disease 2019 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. Staff is closely monitoring the situation and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in PNG and globally.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Guinea addressed issues like: improvement of the surveys on migrant remittances and informal trade; perform detailed technical work to improve external sector statistics (ESS); and participation in the coordinated direct investment survey and the quarterly external debt statistics database. The mission observed that the recommendations from the previous technical assistance mission had been satisfactorily implemented. The report also describes that the timeliness of ESS, based on international standards, should be improved, mainly for the international investment position and the quarterly balance of payments statistics. In order to contribute to progress in the areas discussed in the report, the mission made a one-year detailed action plan, with priority given to the recommendations of importance in improving ESS. The recommendation on reporting reinvested earnings of direct investment enterprises, net increases in insurance company liabilities, and income on reserve assets has partially been implemented.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Papua New Guinea (PNG) economy has grown sluggishly in recent years, reflecting a combination of domestic and external factors. External factors have included adverse terms of trade movements, a drought, and, in 2018, a large earthquake. Domestic factors have included a difficult fiscal consolidation and a shortage of foreign exchange, sustained by an overvalued exchange rate, leading to import compression and weak investment in the non-resource sector. The main macroeconomic challenges for the government are to finish putting in place policies that will help promote economic stability, and to strengthen its long-term development framework. In 2017-18, the new government made important progress in narrowing the fiscal deficit, and adopted a medium-term revenue strategy. But progress on fiscal consolidation has stalled, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is well above the medium-term target. Monetary authorities have begun to facilitate exchange rate adjustment and strengthening of the monetary framework. Stronger economic policies, involving more ambitious fiscal consolidation coupled with faster exchange rate adjustment would yield favorable results.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Equatorial Guinea’s overall real GDP growth has been weak in recent years averaging –0.5 percent from 2010–14, largely owing to a trend decline of the dominant hydrocarbon sector. Economic performance deteriorated substantially in the wake of the 2014 oil-price shock. In 2015, the pace of the contraction intensified, and economic activity declined by 7.4 percent. The near-term outlook is very challenging, given prospects for depressed energy prices and a continued decline in hydrocarbon production. Weak oil revenues and limited buffers will require further cuts to public investment, leading to a deep contraction of the large construction sector and public administration.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Despite strong growth relating to a large liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, Papua New Guinea (PNG) faces strong headwinds from severe revenue shortfalls due to lower global commodity prices and temporary suspension of a large mining operation. Given the large drop in government revenues, decisive consolidation will be needed to keep the government debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward trajectory over the medium term. To this end, expenditure growth should slow and budget resources should focus on high-impact spending, while safeguarding social outlays.