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  • Economic theory and methods x
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Cover Policy Papers
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
Keywords:
transparency policy; PRGT loan resource; amended agreement; SDRS to an account; PRGT reform; Loans; Poverty reduction strategy; Distressed assets
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—2022: Borrowing Agreements With The Government of Canada As Represented By The Minister of Finance, The Bank of Italy, The Government of Japan, And The Bank of Spain
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the first set of borrowing agreements that have been finalized as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to cover the cost of pandemic-related lending and support the self-sustainability of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). All agreements presented use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling and together provide a total of SDR 2.85 billion in new PRGT loan resources for low-income countries (LICs).
Keywords:
transparency policy; PRGT loan resource; amended agreement; SDRS to an account; PRGT reform; Loans; Poverty reduction strategy; Distressed assets
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—2022: Borrowing Agreements With The Government of Canada As Represented By The Minister of Finance, The Bank of Italy, The Government of Japan, And The Bank of Spain
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

This paper presents the first set of borrowing agreements that have been finalized as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to cover the cost of pandemic-related lending and support the self-sustainability of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). All agreements presented use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling and together provide a total of SDR 2.85 billion in new PRGT loan resources for low-income countries (LICs).

Keywords:
loan mobilization round; notification period
Cover IMF Working Papers
Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Euro Area
Mr. Jiaqian Chen, Lucyna Gornicka, and Vaclav Zdarek
This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third, disagreement about future inflation increases in response to news when the current inflation is high, and declines when inflation is low, consistent with a zero lower bound of expectations. Fourth, overreaction of individual inflation forecasts to news increased after the global financial crisis (GFC). Fifth, the reaction of average expectations (and of actual inflation) to shocks became more muted post-GFC in the euro area, but not in the U.S.
Keywords:
expectations formation; surveys of expectations; informational rigidities; inflation expectation; survey inflation expectation; responses of inflation expectation; forecasts of inflation; Inflation; Zero lower bound; Oil production; Supply shocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply
Gabriel Di Bella, Mr. Mark J Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani
This paper analyzes the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe’s balances and economic output. Alternative sources could replace up to 70 percent of Russian gas, allowing Europe to avoid shortages during a temporary disruption of around 6 months. However, a longer full shut-off of Russian gas to the whole of Europe would likely interact with infrastructure bottlenecks to produce very high prices and significant shortages in some countries, with parts of Central and Eastern Europe most vulnerable. With natural gas an important input in production, the capacity of the economy would shrink. Our findings suggest that in the short term, the most vulnerable countries in Central and Eastern Europe — Hungary, Slovak Republic and Czechia — face a risk of shortages of as much as 40 percent of gas consumption and of gross domestic product shrinking by up to 6 percent. The effects on Austria, Germany and Italy would also be significant, but would depend on the exact nature of remaining bottlenecks at the time of the shutoff and consequently the ability of the market to adjust. Many other countries are unlikely to face such constraints and the impact on GDP would be moderate—possibly under 1 percent. Immediate policy priorities center on actions to mitigate impacts, including to eliminate constraints to a more integrated gas market via easing infrastructure bottlenecks, to accelerate efforts in defining and agreeing solidarity contributions, and to promote stronger pricing pass through and other measures to generate greater energy savings. National responses and RePowerEU contains many important measures to help address these challenges, but immediate coordinated action is called for, with specific opportunities in each of these areas.
Keywords:
Energy supply; natural gas; production output; EU gas import capacity; infrastructure bottleneck; supply shut-off; LNG market; output effect; Natural gas sector; Imports; Consumption; Supply shocks; Operational risk; Europe; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; energy shut-off; natural gas in Europe