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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission about the compilation of Coordinated Direct Investment Survey and Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) in El Salvador. The mission recommended the authorities to research the nature of the information available that may be useful for starting the CPIS. This entails discussions regarding the forms designed during the mission for requesting information from new sources. It was also recommended to continue efforts to improve the coverage of surveys applied to nonfinancial private sector enterprises, with emphasis on the largest enterprises that are still reluctant to respond to the balance-of-payments questionnaires.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission regarding the balance of payments, international investment position, and secondary income statistics in El Salvador. The mission reviewed progress made on the recommendations for the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). Although El Salvador is currently reporting data to the CDIS, there are some topics that need improvement, particularly the positions of the shareholders of the three most important financial groups and their subsidiaries to avoid duplicate entries. The mission agreed with the authorities regarding the monitoring of processing payment vouchers sent to the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador by banks and other entities paying remittances for amounts exceeding the threshold of US$500 to complete the personal transfers’ estimates.
Alejandro Hajdenberg and Rafael Romeu

This paper extends the probabilistic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) developed by Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2006) to account explicitly for parameter estimation errors in the debt projection algorithm. This extension highlights public debt projection uncertainty resulting from both the intrinsic volatility of debt determinants and the inaccuracy of the parameter estimates of econometric models employed in the projections. The revised algorithm is applied to conduct a debt sustainability analysis of Uruguay. As part of this exercise, a restricted vector autoregression and a country-specific fiscal reaction function are employed. The resulting increase in the variance of the debt projections that account for the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the forecast is smaller than may have been anticipated, as the improved specification of the underlying econometric model reduces the variance of debt projections. Hence, more precise estimates of economic fundamentals and fiscal policy reaction allow for a feasible debt forecast with a more accurate depiction of its inherent forecast uncertainty.

Nathaniel Frank and Mr. Eduardo Ley

This paper modifies several assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability proposed by Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2007). First, we allow for structural breaks in the vector autoregression model for the macroeconomic variables. Second, in the Monte-Carlo simulations, we draw directly from the empirical distribution of the shocks instead of drawing from a normal distribution, thus allowing for asymmetries and thick tails. Third, we circumvent the use of a fiscal reaction function by focusing attention instead on debt-stabilizing balances, to produce more “agnostic” debt projections. The paper illustrates how these methodological modifications have significant impacts on the results for specific country cases.

International Monetary Fund
This report examines the Observance of Standards and Codes on the Data Module for Turkey. Progress in data quality reflects the authorities’ commitment to set statistical development on a high and sustainable path, and to address remaining challenges. A cornerstone of this effort is the more robust framework established by the new Statistics Law of Turkey of November 2005. This law assigned compilation responsibilities for a broad range of official data, including macroeconomic statistics.
International Monetary Fund

The vast mineral deposits of Mongolia, if properly managed, could make available large budgetary resources, which would help address a wide range of its economic challenges. This report focuses on Mongolia’s selected issues in the mining sector, government employment and wages, and saving and credit cooperatives. The attractiveness of Mongolia’s mining sector has been eroded in recent years with the introduction of the windfall profit tax (WPT). The high wage bill mainly reflects the large size of government employment and the recent rapid real wage increases.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

On March 15, the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank announced the joint publication of the first of a new series of quarterly releases of statistics for 176 developing and transition countries, in response to requests for dissemination of more timely external debt indicators. The statistics are hosted at www.oecd.org/dac/debt and are also accessible through each agency’s website. The IMF’s website is www.imf.org. Following is the text of News Brief 99/11.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

1.1 The purpose of the External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (the Guide) is to provide comprehensive guidance for the measurement and presentation of external debt statistics. It also provides advice on the compilation of these data and on their analytical use. The intention is to contribute to both an improvement in, and a greater understanding of, external debt statistics. In doing so, the Guide is responding to the concerns of markets and policymakers for better external debt statistics to help assess external vulnerabilities at a time when increasing international capital flows are resulting in greater market interdependence.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

10.1 External debt statistics can be compiled from a variety of sources, using a range of methods. Statistics can be collected from the debtor, from the creditor, or indirectly through information from financial intermediaries in the form of surveys, regulatory reports, and/or from other government administrative records. But a precondition for reliable and timely statistics is that the country has a strong and well-organized institutional setting for the compilation of statistics on public debt—so that all public and publicly guaranteed debt is well monitored and managed (see UNCTAD, 1993)—and private debt, and for the compilation of aggregate external debt statistics.