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This paper extends the probabilistic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) developed by Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2006) to account explicitly for parameter estimation errors in the debt projection algorithm. This extension highlights public debt projection uncertainty resulting from both the intrinsic volatility of debt determinants and the inaccuracy of the parameter estimates of econometric models employed in the projections. The revised algorithm is applied to conduct a debt sustainability analysis of Uruguay. As part of this exercise, a restricted vector autoregression and a country-specific fiscal reaction function are employed. The resulting increase in the variance of the debt projections that account for the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the forecast is smaller than may have been anticipated, as the improved specification of the underlying econometric model reduces the variance of debt projections. Hence, more precise estimates of economic fundamentals and fiscal policy reaction allow for a feasible debt forecast with a more accurate depiction of its inherent forecast uncertainty.
This paper modifies several assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability proposed by Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2007). First, we allow for structural breaks in the vector autoregression model for the macroeconomic variables. Second, in the Monte-Carlo simulations, we draw directly from the empirical distribution of the shocks instead of drawing from a normal distribution, thus allowing for asymmetries and thick tails. Third, we circumvent the use of a fiscal reaction function by focusing attention instead on debt-stabilizing balances, to produce more “agnostic” debt projections. The paper illustrates how these methodological modifications have significant impacts on the results for specific country cases.
The vast mineral deposits of Mongolia, if properly managed, could make available large budgetary resources, which would help address a wide range of its economic challenges. This report focuses on Mongolia’s selected issues in the mining sector, government employment and wages, and saving and credit cooperatives. The attractiveness of Mongolia’s mining sector has been eroded in recent years with the introduction of the windfall profit tax (WPT). The high wage bill mainly reflects the large size of government employment and the recent rapid real wage increases.
Abstract
This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.
On March 15, the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank announced the joint publication of the first of a new series of quarterly releases of statistics for 176 developing and transition countries, in response to requests for dissemination of more timely external debt indicators. The statistics are hosted at www.oecd.org/dac/debt and are also accessible through each agency’s website. The IMF’s website is www.imf.org. Following is the text of News Brief 99/11.
Abstract
1.1 The purpose of the External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (the Guide) is to provide comprehensive guidance for the measurement and presentation of external debt statistics. It also provides advice on the compilation of these data and on their analytical use. The intention is to contribute to both an improvement in, and a greater understanding of, external debt statistics. In doing so, the Guide is responding to the concerns of markets and policymakers for better external debt statistics to help assess external vulnerabilities at a time when increasing international capital flows are resulting in greater market interdependence.
Abstract
10.1 External debt statistics can be compiled from a variety of sources, using a range of methods. Statistics can be collected from the debtor, from the creditor, or indirectly through information from financial intermediaries in the form of surveys, regulatory reports, and/or from other government administrative records. But a precondition for reliable and timely statistics is that the country has a strong and well-organized institutional setting for the compilation of statistics on public debt—so that all public and publicly guaranteed debt is well monitored and managed (see UNCTAD, 1993)—and private debt, and for the compilation of aggregate external debt statistics.