Lukas Boer, Mr. Andrea Pescatori, and Martin Stuermer
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) has its share of detractors and skeptics who say the institution doesn’t do enough or is too frequently “behind the curve,” in market parlance. Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis is more than a strong defense. Written by a team at the ECB, it is a unique exposition, laid out more transparently than by any other advanced economy central bank, of the analysis that draws from theory and models to inform the deliberations of its governing council’s monetary policy decisions. Readers will be impressed with what is under the hood—the science and art that go into monetary policymaking.
1. At its Spring Meeting, the IMFC reiterated the importance of implementing the program of quota and voice reforms in line with the timetable set out by the Board of Governors in Singapore.2 The Committee welcomed the initial informal Board discussions on a new quota formula and stressed the importance of agreeing on a new formula, which should be simple and transparent and should capture members’ relative positions in the world economy. It noted that this reform would result in higher shares for dynamic economies, many of which are emerging market economies, whose weight and role in the global economy have increased. The Committee also stressed the importance of enhancing the voice and participation of low-income countries, a key issue for which is an increase in basic votes, at a minimum preserving the voting share of low-income countries. The Committee called on the Executive Board to continue its work on the reform package as a matter of priority.
See Table 3 of Quotas—Further Thoughts on a New Quota Formula (2006). Calculated as the sum of variable weights multiplied with a country’s share in the global total of the respective variables. Weights do not reflect a variable’s contribution per se as correlation among variables is high.
There is now widespread recognition that addressing quota and voice imbalances across the membership is essential for preserving the effectiveness of the Fund and its credibility as a cooperative institution. As noted in the Managing Director’s Report on Implementing the Medium-Term Strategy,2 members’ quotas have become increasingly out of line with countries’ economic weight in the global economy. In addition, the declining role of basic votes since the Fund was established has weakened the voice of smaller developing countries.
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper examines some popular explanations for the smooth operation of the pre-1914 gold standard. We find that the rapid adjustment of economies to underlying disturbances played an important role in stabilizing output and employment under the gold standard system, but no evidence that this success also reflected relatively small underlying disturbances. Finally, the paper also suggests an explanation for the evolution of the international monetary system based on growing nominal inertia over time.
In evaluating their foreign exchange exposure, international investors often compare actual portfolios with those calculated under the assumption that the variability of returns on various currency assets is time invariant. This paper uses autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) models to test that assumption. For major reserve currencies, including the SDR, we find evidence that the variances of returns do vary over time and that ARCH models that specify changing variances are superior to models that assume constant variance. By incorrectly assuming a constant variability of returns, the error introduced is smaller with the SDR than with any other national currency.
Mr. Peter Isard, Mr. Mark P. Taylor, and Mr. Michael P. Dooley
This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence, that gold price movements, under the maintained hypothesis, should have explanatory power with respect to exchange rate movements over and above the effects of monetary shocks. The paper applies multivariate vector autoregression and cointegration modeling techniques to test for the short-and long-run influence of gold prices on exchange rates conditional on other monetary and real macroeconomic variables, and applies the resulting error correction exchange rate equation to out-of-sample forecasting exercises.