Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

  • Economic theory and methods x
Clear All
International Monetary Fund

1. Restructuring domestic law sovereign debt—domestic debt for short—poses a different set of benefits and challenges compared to a restructuring of external sovereign debt.1 Unlike external debt, the sovereign can restructure its domestic debt through changes in domestic law.2 Furthermore, restructuring only domestic law debt may offer a way of limiting the external reputational consequences of debt restructuring and perhaps avoiding loss of access to external debt markets. At the same time, a DDR must confront the fact that sovereign exposures of domestic banks and pension funds disproportionally take the form of domestic rather than external debt. This provides a channel for sovereign stress to spread to other parts of the economy, with potentially serious adverse effects on economic activity as the costs of such distress reverberate across creditors and the financial system.3 The burden of adjustment for domestic residents increases further with fiscal consolidation to restore debt sustainability.

International Monetary Fund
As emerging and developing economies accumulate more domestic sovereign debt, it is likely to play a larger role in the resolution of future sovereign debt crises. This paper analyzes when and how to restructure sovereign domestic debt in unsustainable debt cases while minimizing economic and financial disruptions. Key to determining whether or not domestic debt should be part of a sovereign restructuring is weighing the benefits of the lower debt burden against the fiscal and broader economic costs of achieving that debt relief. The fiscal costs may have to be incurred in the context of restructuring because of the need to maintain financial stability, to ensure the functioning of the central bank, or to replenish pension savings. A sovereign domestic debt restructuring should be designed to anticipate, minimize, and manage its impact on the domestic economy and financial system. Casting the net wide across claims can help boost participation in the restructuring by lowering the relief sought from each creditor group. A strategy that engages creditors constructively, and as transparently as possible, that relies on market-based incentives, and that presents the exchange as part of a consistent macroeconomic plan typically works best.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

2019 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Completion of the Financing Assurances Review, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Releases; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

The economy appears to have turned the corner but a disappointing fiscal outcome has not eased concerns about debt sustainability. After protracted stagnation following the 2008 financial crisis, there was a moderate recovery in 2015 and growth is set to pick up. Notwithstanding adjustment efforts, the budget deficit remained high, mainly reflecting delayed implementation of reforms. The large funding requirements were mostly met by the central bank, the National Insurance Scheme, and growing arrears. Continued large deficits pose risks to the fixed exchange rate.

Ms. Lisa Drakes, Ms. Chrystol Thomas, Roland Craigwell, and Kevin Greenidge
This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55–56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth.
International Monetary Fund

This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the difficult global economic conditions continue to hit Barbados with growth at anemic levels. The current account deficit has widened in recent times owing to higher oil and food prices. Executive Directors commended the authorities for adopting a revised Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy aimed at generating a balanced budget. They emphasized that fiscal consolidation should focus on expenditure reduction, including lowering the wage bill, reducing transfers to public enterprises, and minimizing tax exemptions.

International Monetary Fund

The global crisis has hit Barbados front and center. The broad economic weakness has hurt the labor market, while inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The major challenge ahead is to put public debt on a steady declining path to support both domestic and external stability. A decisive fiscal adjustment is the best way to protect the exchange rate peg while the current monetary stance is broadly appropriate. Banks remain healthy, but tighter regulations are needed. Supervision of nonbank financial institutions needs to be revamped.

International Monetary Fund

Barbados has some of the highest social and competitiveness indicators in the region and enjoys investment-grade rating on its sovereign bonds. The staff report for Barbados’s 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights economic developments and policies. Balance-of-payments pressures have increased, despite a narrowing in the current account deficit. In the absence of corrective measures, reserves are projected to decline to close to two months of imports over the medium term, which could lead to pressures on the currency peg.

Ms. Yan M Sun and Mr. Wendell A. Samuel
With a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country.