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Cover IMF Working Papers
Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals to Aruba Since COVID-19 Pandemic
Olga Bespalova
This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
Keywords:
Econometric Modeling; Forecasting; tourism; arrivals; tourist arrivals; Google Trends; flight capacity utiilization; load factor; time-series models; time-series econometrics; arima; Aruba; Covid-19; Pandemic; tourism arrival; arrivals to Aruba; Aruba tourism authority; time-series model; IMF working papers; consumption expenditure; Capacity utilization; Unemployment rate; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation Discussions—Informational Annex
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

(As of January 28, 2021)

Keywords:
CPI data; CPI survey; price sample; price statistics; compilation methodology; External sector statistics; Government finance statistics
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, June 2020
International Monetary Fund
Finance & Development, June 2020
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; economics; dynamics unfolding; politics; policy solution; forest biodiversity; financial market volatility; sustainable development outcome; CBA team; print copy; COVID-19; Personal income tax; Corporate income tax; Global; North America; Caribbean; Western Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: Technical Assistance Report; National Accounts Review Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba focuses on the mission undertaken to assist the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in assessing and improving the national accounts. The CBS plans to recompile and disseminate the revised annual current price estimates by January 2020, and improved constant 2013 price estimates by June 2020. The mission and the Director of the CBS met with the Minister of Finance, Economic Affairs and Culture to discuss the rebased estimates and the 2020–2025 action plan. The budget, staffing, and data coordination plans of the CBS were also discussed. The Minister agreed to establishing formal data coordination agreements between the CBS and other government institutions, and on the need for the legislation and related reporting procedures to be strengthened. She also agreed to the 2020–2025 action plan to implement the Special Data Dissemination Standard for real-sector statistics, the need for benchmark and regular surveys, and to incrementally increasing the CBS budget and staffing, subject to Cabinet approval.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP-E estimate; GDP-P estimate; SUT estimate; CBS staff; estimates of the CBS; GDP series; price GDP-p; price GDP series; GDP-p estimate; CBS GDP; CBS plan; nominal GDP-E; Real sector statistics; Financial statements; Financial statistics; Price indexes; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: A Strategy For IMF Engagement on Social Spending—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, and Review Department

Background papers to the "Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending"

Keywords:
PP; spending; staff report; staff; IMF staff calculation; social spending; spending reform; leverage IMF; spending issue; sectoral expert; Fiscal consolidation
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: A Strategy For IMF Engagement on Social Spending—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, and Review Department

Background papers to the "Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending"

Keywords:
PP; spending; staff report; staff; IMF staff calculation; poverty impact; benefit share; PMT decile; higher-income groups; share of benefit; Personal income; Consumption taxes; Aging; Global
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: A Strategy For IMF Engagement on Social Spending—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, and Review Department

Background papers to the "Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending"

Keywords:
PP; spending; staff report; staff; IMF staff calculation; policy advice; program engagement; definition of macro-criticality; spending outcome; spending conditionality; Fiscal space; Civil society organizations
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: A Strategy For IMF Engagement on Social Spending—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, and Review Department

Background papers to the "Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending"

Keywords:
PP; spending; staff report; staff; IMF staff calculation; health spending; spending equation; education spending; social spending; IMF lending; Current spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation Discussions—Informational Annex
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

2019 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Aruba; GDP; article IV consultation discussion; discussion; Last Article IV consultation discussion; development fund allocation; General government; foreign exchange; government deposit estimate; tax arrears; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Monetary statistics; Reserve assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation Discussions—Informational Annex
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Aruba: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; discussion; IMF staff calculation; development fund allocation; financing category; below-the-line financing; government deposit estimate; estimate of NFA; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Monetary statistics; Reserve assets