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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted remotely during January 16-20, 2022 to assist the Dubai Statistics Center (DSC) in introducing hedonic methods for quality adjustments in the consumer price index (CPI) and the real estate price index (REPI). Currently the REPI is compiled by DSC using stratification with simple averages. Moving from simple averages to hedonic regressions will improve the accuracy of the indicator since it will take into account the quality mix of properties within each stratum. The mission recommended the hedonics time dummy method with a rolling window of 12 months for compiling the REPI. This method provides more stable results, i.e., less volatile indices, since it pools one year of data instead of one quarter, and it is particularly recommended when few observations are available. It is widely used for Residential Property Price Index compilation and for CPI compilation with web scraped data. The TA mission provided extensive training on using this method accompanied by R codes adapted to the Dubai sample data.