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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Niger’s exposure to recurrent shocks, including climate shocks, increases its vulnerability to food insecurity. This paper aims to quantify the combined effects of climate shocks and food insecurity on key economic variables and identify the most effective mitigation policy responses using a general equilibrium model. Results indicate that rural households would be the most affected by a climate shock resulting in a decline in domestic agricultural production, which would reduce their consumption, erode their capital, and thus increase urban-rural inequalities. Simulations show that cash transfers and the reduction of internal mobility costs appear to be more effective in mitigating the impact on households of a climate shock on agricultural production.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
CEMAC is broadly benefiting from the positive terms of trade shock amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Post-pandemic economic recovery is taking hold, albeit slowly, supported by high oil prices and the lifting of COVID-19 containment measures. External reserves have started to build up, though still short of the desired level, owing in part to costly untargeted energy and food subsidies. Global inflation pressures have passed through to domestic prices, putting pressure on real incomes. Rebuilding buffers and sustaining a recovery that protects the most vulnerable will require stricter adherence to budget and reform plans consistent with Fund-supported programs and policy advice; this will ensure that part of the oil windfall is saved. Implementation of these policies in current favorable conditions is critical to strengthening resilience in the face of rising risks, including most notably to food security, debt vulnerabilities, and tightening of global financial conditions.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

The conclusion of parliamentary and presidential elections on May 15, 2022, followed by a peaceful transition of power, reinforced Somalia’s commitment towards state-building and stability despite a fragile security situation and domestic and global challenges. The newly elected government is focused on addressing security risks, urgent climate change, and severe food insecurity, which are compounded by higher global food and fuel prices. Somalia is currently facing a severe and prolonged drought with potential for famine. With four failed rainy seasons and the fifth at risks of also being failed, 4.3 million people are currently facing acute food insecurity and that number is expected to rise to 6.7 million by the end of the year. Therefore, the Somali authorities continue to mobilize resources from international partners in coordination with UN agencies to avert famine. Despite the challenges, the authorities have made progress in economic reforms and reforms under the Ninth National Development Plan (NDP9) which is focused on rebuilding Somalia’s economic institutions, improving public finance management, and achieving sustainable and equitable growth. The Somali authorities also continue to fully own their IMF-supported program, as reflected in strong performance under the program. This performance, together with the continued support from development partners will underpin Somalia’s efforts towards reaching the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Completion Point (HIPC CP) by end-2023, which would be a notable achievement given the country’s challenging circumstances and capacity constraints.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. On behalf of the Malawian authorities, we thank management and staff for facilitating the authorities’ request for emergency financing under the new Food Shock Window (FSW) and a Staff Monitored Program (SMP) with Board involvement (PMB. Our authorities view rapid financing under the FSW as critical to alleviate food shortages, while the PMB would help sustain the reform momentum and pave the way for deeper reforms under a new Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) program.