Abstract

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises six sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

Statistical Appendix

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises six sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2015–16 and the medium-term scenario for 2017–20 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of the changes to the database and statistical tables since the April 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The third section provides a general description of the data and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the WEO is summarized in the fourth section. The fifth section provides information on methods and reporting standards for the member countries’ national account and government finance indicators included in the report.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. (Statistical Appendix A is included here; Statistical Appendix B is available online.) Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through September 16, 2015. The figures for 2015 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; because they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels measured during the period July 27 to August 24, 2015. For 2015 and 2016, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/special drawing right (SDR) conversion rates of 1.402 and 1.408, U.S. dollar/euro conversion rates of 1.113 and 1.118, and yen/U.S. dollar conversion rates of 121.4 and 121.1, respectively.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $51.62 a barrel in 2015 and $50.36 a barrel in 2016.

Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies are described in Box A1.

With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016, that three-month euro deposits will average 0.0 percent in 2015 and 2016, and that six-month yen deposits will average 0.1 percent in 2015 and 2016.

As a reminder, with respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member countries adopting the euro are as follows:

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Established on January 1, 2008.

Established on January 1, 2011.

Established on January 1, 2001.

Established on January 1, 2014.

Established on January 1, 2015.

Established on January 1, 2009.

Established on January 1, 2007.

See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 WEO for details on how the conversion rates were established.

What’s New

  • Data for Lithuania are now included in the euro area aggregates, but they were excluded in the April 2015 WEO.

  • Projections for Greece are based on data available as of August 12, 2015.

  • As in the April 2015 WEO, data for Syria are excluded from 2011 onward because of the ongoing conflict and the related lack of data.

Data and Conventions

Data and projections for 189 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database. The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the compilation of national statistics, including analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

Most countries’ macroeconomic data presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 1993 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA). The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM 2000), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001)—have been or are being aligned with the SNA 2008.1 These standards reflect the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions, financial sector stability, and public sector fiscal positions. The process of adapting country data to the new standards begins in earnest when the manuals are released. However, full concordance with the manuals is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data; hence, the WEO estimates are only partially adapted to these manuals. Nonetheless, for many countries the impact, on major balances and aggregates, of conversion to the updated standards will be small. Many other countries have partially adopted the latest standards and will continue implementation over a period of years.

Composite data for country groups in the WEO are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.2 Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply:

  • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

  • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.3

  • Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions. Annual data are not adjusted for calendar-day effects. For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.

  • Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.

  • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

  • Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars.

  • Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

  • Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.

Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.

Table A.

Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20141

(Percent of total for group or world)

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The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity valuation of economies’ GDP. The number of economies comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

South Sudan is omitted from the net external position groups composite for lack of a fully developed database.

Table B.

Advanced Economies by Subgroup

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On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

Table C.

European Union

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Table D.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings

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Turkmenistan, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Table E.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries

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Dot (star) indicates that the country is a net creditor (net debtor).

Dot instead of star indicates that the country has reached the completion point.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

South Sudan is omitted from the net external position group composite for lack of a fully developed database.

Table F.

Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods1

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Unless noted otherwise, all data refer to calendar years.

For some countries, the figures for 2014 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please refer to Table G, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

Table G.

Key Data Documentation

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Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual (number in parentheses following abbreviation signifies edition); CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts.

BEA = U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; CB = Central Bank; FEO = Foreign Exchange Office; IFS = IMF, International Financial Statistics; MEP = Ministry of Economy and/or Planning; MIAC = Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; MoC = Ministry of Commerce; MoF = Ministry of Finance; NESDB = National Economic and Social Development Board; NSO = National Statistics Office; OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; PFTAC = Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre; PMO = Prime Minister’s Office; SAFE = State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

National accounts base year is the period with which other periods are compared and the period for which prices appear in the denominators of the price relationships used to calculate the index.

Use of chain-weighted methodology allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by reducing or eliminating the downward biases in volume series built on index numbers that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past.

For some countries, the structures of government consist of a broader coverage than specified for the general government. Coverage: BCG = Budgetary Central Government; CG = Central Government; LG = Local Government; MPC = Monetary Public Corporation, including Central Bank; NMPC = Nonmonetary Financial Public Corporations; NFPC = Nonfinancial Public Corporations; SG = State Government; SS = Social Security Funds; TG = Territorial Governments.

Accounting Standard: A = Accrual; C = Cash.

Nominal GDP is not measured in the same way as real GDP.